<\/p>\n
SpaceX (SPCX) stock slid for two straight sessions before Thursday\u2019s close, dropping from a post-IPO high of $225.64 to $185.00. Then a top Wall Street analyst made one of the boldest calls yet on the stock.<\/p>\n
Arete Research initiated coverage of SpaceX on June 18 with a Buy rating and a price target of $401 a share. <\/p>\n
That\u2019s the highest number any analyst has put on the stock since it went public.<\/p>\n
Arete analyst Andrew Beale isn\u2019t betting on rockets, at least not directly. Beale, a senior analyst at the firm, has been analyzing telecom and cable stocks since the 1990s. <\/p>\n
What makes his call particularly intriguing is that he\u2019s betting on a satellite SpaceX hasn\u2019t even launched yet.<\/p>\n
Arete\u2019s Andrew Beale tops Wall Street with a $401 SpaceX call<\/p>\n
The $401 target implies roughly 117% upside from Thursday\u2019s closing price of $185. <\/p>\n
At that level, SpaceX would carry a market valuation near $5.3 trillion, or about 80 times the company\u2019s projected 2027 sales, Finbold reports.<\/p>\n
Beale\u2019s research note described SpaceX as breaking \u201chard engineering challenges into stepwise tasks\u201d while building hardware and software across three businesses at once:<\/p>\n
rockets, satellite internet, and artificial intelligence. <\/p>\n
In plain terms, Beale thinks SpaceX wins by solving one hard problem at a time, not by betting everything on a single breakthrough.<\/p>\n
His specific catalyst is Starlink V3, the next generation of SpaceX\u2019s satellites. <\/p>\n
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Beale argues V3 could unlock a sizable opportunity in suburban broadband, where home internet options are often limited, by delivering faster speeds and more capacity than today\u2019s fleet.<\/p>\n
Arete Research\u2019s $401 price target leans on satellite hardware SpaceX has yet to fly.<\/p>\n
Joe Raedle / Getty Images<\/p>\n
Why the suburban broadband bet still depends on a rocket that hasn\u2019t flown commercially<\/p>\n
There\u2019s a catch: <\/p>\n
Starlink V3 satellites are too large for SpaceX\u2019s workhorse Falcon 9. <\/p>\n
They need Starship, the reusable heavy-lift vehicle SpaceX has tested for years but hasn\u2019t yet flown a fully operational commercial mission, Parameter reports.<\/p>\n
That makes Beale\u2019s $401 target a bet on execution timing as much as demand. <\/p>\n
That means two separate things have to go right for the $401 target to hold up: <\/p>\n
SpaceX has to actually get Starship built and flying on schedule, and Once Starlink V3 satellites are in orbit, suburban customers have to sign up in the numbers Beale is projecting.<\/p>\n
If either falls short, the case weakens.<\/p>\n
What SpaceX\u2019s own numbers say about which business is actually carrying the company<\/p>\n
SpaceX\u2019s regulatory filings split the company into three segments: Space, Connectivity, and AI, according to its registration statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). <\/p>\n
Connectivity, which houses Starlink, is the only one consistently turning a profit.<\/p>\n
More Space Stocks:<\/p>\n
Jeff Bezos\u2019 Blue Origin rocket explodes as space tech stocks tankGoldman Sachs\u2019 verdict on SpaceX\u2019s record-setting $1.8T IPOAT&T, Verizon back $1.2B broadband bet in space tech leader<\/p>\n
In 2025, Connectivity generated $11.39 billion in revenue and $4.42 billion in operating income, up nearly 50% and 120% year over year. <\/p>\n
The AI segment, which absorbed Musk\u2019s xAI in February 2026, lost $6.36 billion on just $3.2 billion in revenue over the same period.<\/p>\n
This matters for Beale\u2019s thesis, as his bull case leans almost entirely on Starlink scaling further, not on the AI business turning a profit anytime soon.<\/p>\n
Where the rest of Wall Street disagrees<\/p>\n
Arete isn\u2019t the only firm with skin in the game. <\/p>\n
CFRA analyst Keith Snyder carries a Sell rating and a $115 price target, the lowest on the Street, arguing SpaceX already trades on outsized growth assumptions.<\/p>\n
Related: SpaceX president reveals what investors should be watching<\/p>\n
Oppenheimer\u2019s Timothy Horan sits in between. <\/p>\n
He raised his target to $250 on June 18, the same day as Arete\u2019s call, after calling SpaceX \u201cthe only vertically integrated AI company\u201d with the capital and talent to compete at scale.<\/p>\n
That $115-to-$401 spread, with other firms scattered in between, shows how unsettled the market still is on SpaceX\u2019s worth less than two weeks after its IPO.<\/p>\n
Four catalysts that need to go right for the $401 case to hold up<\/p>\n
Beale\u2019s target assumes that a lot of things will break SpaceX\u2019s way before 2027. The catalysts worth tracking include:<\/p>\n
Starship reaching full operational status so V3 satellites can actually launch.Starlink subscriber growth holding near the roughly 50% pace it posted in 2025.The AI segment\u2019s losses narrowing instead of widening further.Insiders selling gradually rather than dumping shares all at once immediately their lock-up restrictions lift.What this means for investors before SpaceX\u2019s first earnings report<\/p>\n
SpaceX\u2019s first earnings release as a public company lands on August 11, a date that carries extra weight since it triggers insider selling rights, Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, told Finbold. <\/p>\n
20% of insiders can sell that day, with another 10% unlocking if shares hold 30% above the $135 IPO price for five to ten straight sessions.<\/p>\n
SPCX is still up about 14% over the past five trading days despite two losing sessions, while the S&P 500 gained roughly 1% over the same stretch.<\/p>\n
Treat Beale\u2019s $401 target as a long-term thesis that only pays off once Starship is flying commercially and launching V3 satellites on schedule.<\/p>\n
Related: SpaceX stock joins AI bond frenzy<\/p>\n
#Veteran #analyst #sets #jawdropping #SpaceX #stock #price #target<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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