Gold wavers as Fed rate decision looms and Mideast tensions rise

Gold wavered ahead of a finely balanced interest-rate decision by the US Federal Reserve due later Wednesday, while fighting escalated in the Middle East after a brief lull.

Bullion traded in a narrow range after declining 1.1% in the previous session, holding near $4 030 an ounce in the Asian afternoon. Interest-rate swaps imply about a one-in-three chance of a quarter-point hike by the Fed, an unusually high degree of uncertainty so close to a decision by the standards of recent years. Higher borrowing costs are typically a headwind for non-yielding gold.

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Policymakers are likely to be torn between June’s tamer-than-expected inflation reading and the more recent rise in oil prices that accompanied a flare-up in fighting between the US and Iran this month. Benchmark Brent crude gained almost 4% to top $87 a barrel on Wednesday, with the US military saying it had intercepted an Iranian attack on bases in the Persian Gulf region.

The upcoming rate decision “could prove pivotal for the next leg in gold,” said Ahmad Assiri, a strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “Should policymakers deliver a more-hawkish-than-expected message, reinforcing the prospect of higher rates or signalling greater concern over inflation, gold is likely to come under some pressure,” he said.

Bullion is down by nearly a quarter since the US-Iran war began more than five months ago, with high energy prices stoking inflationary pressures and raising the likelihood that rates will stay higher for longer. However, the metal has managed to hold near the key support level of $4,000 an ounce since late June, bolstered by a wave of dip-buying.

“The technical picture seems stable,” Assiri said, adding that this is “an encouraging sign given the higher yields.”

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Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump welcomed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House on Tuesday as he sought to lay the ground for further diplomacy. The US has paused airstrikes on Iran in recent days after carrying out nearly two weeks of attacks.

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4 033.32 an ounce at 6:56 a.m. in London. Silver gained 1.1% to $57.76 an ounce, having given up more than 2% in the previous session. Platinum fell, while palladium inched higher. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the US dollar, was down 0.1%.

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