Africa’s population growth without jobs ‘a ticking time bomb’

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JEREMY MAGGS: By 2050, one in every four people on the planet is expected to be African. That extraordinary population growth could give the continent far greater economic, cultural and political influence.

But without jobs, without education, without functioning institutions and deeper economic integration, it could also intensify equality, migration and instability.

In his new book, called The Invisible People, former MTN chief executive, Phuthuma Nhleko argues that Africa remains largely invisible in the global economy and in many of the institutions where international power is exercised.

He goes on to say that the continent needs a new renaissance, built, he says, on a stronger sense of identity, of greater economic cooperation, technological innovation and a more confident collective voice.

So I want to explore that in a lot more detail. Phuthuma Nhleko, a very warm welcome to you, and maybe let’s start with a contextual question, if I can, and it’s in the title. Who are the invisible people but, more importantly, invisible to whom?

PHUTHUMA NHLEKO: Well, the invisibility is, as I put it in the book, it’s the invisibility to the rest of the world. I feel that Africa is, in many respects, on a number of matters and areas, whether it’s commerce, whether it’s geopolitics and so on, we’re very much on the periphery. So we are invisible to a great part of the world.

But in many respects, we’re also invisible to ourselves in the sense that there has been a huge detachment between the historical line of Africans, their history, their contributions and how they see themselves today.

So it’s a double invisibility, if you like. I think that’s where I speak to somebody like WEB Du Bois, who really explains this concept, I think, quite masterfully.

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JEREMY MAGGS: I’m wondering if Africa is invisible because the world then chooses not to see us. Or do you think it’s because the continent has failed to project not only its power, but also its potential?

PHUTHUMA NHLEKO: Yeah, it’s really the latter. I think the days of victimhood are gone, they are … Of course, the world sees you to the extent you want to be seen, so we all know the tragic historical history, certainly of the last 500 years, 600 years.

But we are in a position now to assert ourselves or in a position to leverage the population dividend, which, of course, can become a liability if we don’t have some of the foundational pillars that I spoke about.

So really, it’s up to us to leverage it.

So it’s more the latter in what you’ve described, is that we need to be on the front foot, we need to begin to engage in long-range planning, and we really need to move forward in a manner that is in our self-enlightened interest. So that’s the way that I see that.

JEREMY MAGGS: It’s interesting that you reference the date 2050. As I said in my introduction, roughly a quarter of the world’s population could be African. Why, Phuthuma, is that statistic so central to the book?

PHUTHUMA NHLEKO: Well, that statistic, there’s nothing absolutely magical about it. Apart from the fact that it is half century and if you look at or review a lot of stats from a whole range of institutions, including the United Nations and so on, that’s when we expect to have a really fundamental pivot on the demographics of many countries.

So, I would say that’s when, for instance, you would expect by around 2042 that the composition of the American demographics would be majority black and brown.

Read: Climate change may force 113m people to relocate within Africa by 2050: report

That’s by when you would expect that almost 50% of the youth under 18 years of age would be on this continent.

So it does point to that date, but there’s nothing absolutely magic about it, it could be 2040 and so on. But I just think 2050 is actually quite an important marker.

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JEREMY MAGGS: All right, let me let me follow up on that then. What happens if the continent reaches that point without, as you’ve suggested in the book, creating enough jobs, industries and functioning cities?

PHUTHUMA NHLEKO: Then we are really on the path to a ticking time bomb, aren’t we? Because the essence of the thesis of the book is that the rate at which this population is growing, if you look at that trend and you look at the trend that would describe the amount of capacity to be provided in food, health, education and so on, that trend, albeit rising, is rising very, very gradually.

So that divergence is really what describes the huge danger that we face if we don’t have those institutions and that capacity and those pillars in place.

In fact, I describe in the book that every time you watch television these days, you often see huge migration across the Sahel and across the Mediterranean into Europe. That is really a drop in the ocean.

If these pillars are not put in place, that capacity is not put in place, that ensures that the needs of those millions and millions of people are addressed on the African continent. Even Europe will not have the luxury to turn a blind eye to this because they will be hugely impacted, and we’re seeing that already.

Read/listen: Africa facing ‘demographic window of opportunity’

So I think the simple answer to your very simple question is if those things are not put in place, we then have enormous socio-economic tensions that will engulf everybody, including Europe in particular.

JEREMY MAGGS: Phuthuma, let me push you a little further on Africa’s population growth. In the book itself, you describe it as a potential source of strength. Obviously, a lot of other people would view it as a looming crisis.

How narrow, then, do you think that window is in which governments need to act quickly? And you referenced long-range planning, do we have the luxury of long-range planning in this respect?

PHUTHUMA NHLEKO: Well, it’s an imperative. Let me start off by saying that it is a dividend. It is a potential source of strength. But that source of strength can very rapidly turn into a huge problem and a huge liability. So that’s what I’m saying.

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With respect to do we have the luxury, no, we don’t.

It’s an imperative, I would say, on a timeline, we need to, in the next five years, start making some very, very decisive actions as far as preparing for this bulge, because the other complexity that we have is the fact that technology change is accelerating.

Technology is changing at a faster and faster pace.

So if you were in China and it was 1949, you had more of a luxury of time to plan for what we’re seeing in China today. We have less of that luxury because of technology.

Read: Africa’s demographics: dividend or disaster?

There are many indications that almost 30%, for instance, of the relatively unskilled workforce in the United States will be out of a job in three years, and that’s a highly developed country.

So can you imagine what it means for the African countries where some are still even trying to emerge out of the second and third Industrial Revolution, let alone the fourth, or entering the fourth.

So the timeline is limited. I would say the window of five years and merely because of technological change is the kind of time window that we have. If we don’t act within that window, I think the African continent will then be left behind even more substantially than it is today.

JEREMY MAGGS: In conversation there with Phuthuma Nhleko, who’s the author of the book The Invisible People, he’s also former chief executive officer of MTN.

The full interview can be seen on MoneywebTV on Moneyweb.co.za.

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