The week ahead: Results out of MTN, Sun International, Exxaro and two big insurers

It’s expected to be a quieter week compared to last week’s flurry of company results and economic data.

Locally, we expect full-year releases from:

Sun International (Monday): At the half-year mark, adjusted headline earnings per share (Heps) increased by 6.5% year on year, reaching 229 cents per share and group income advanced by 3.2% to R6.2 billion. This performance was supported by strong growth in Sunbet and a solid showing from Sun Slots, while the land-based casino segment faced headwinds. Though management’s guidance was limited, for FY25 the market expects adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to grow 3.75% to R5.47 and revenue to increase 2.39% to R12.88 billion.

The potential introduction of a 20% national tax on the gross gambling revenue of all forms of online gambling announced by National Treasury recently caused a stir in the industry, raising questions about the impact on income for legitimate betting companies.

If the proposal finds favour with lawmakers, it could make South Africa’s gambling industry one of the world’s most heavily taxed

Read:
Employees are gambling away their paycheques
Absa now using gambling spend data when lending to clients

MTN (Monday): Per the group’s nine-month update for its 2025 financial year, group Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) was 41.1% higher, with margin expansion to 45% being underpinned by strong top-line growth and the ongoing group-wide expense efficiency programme. Management maintained its guidance in terms of its medium-term targets and expects MTN Group service revenue growth in at least the high teens, MTN South Africa service revenue growth at low- to mid-single digits, and MTN Nigeria service revenue growth of at least 20%. Fintech service revenue growth is anticipated to be in the high 20% to low 30%. For FY25, the market expects adjusted EPS to surge 60.9% to R13.15 and revenue to jump 17.7% to R221.3 billion.

Read: MTN launches R35bn IHS Towers full takeover

Old Mutual (Tuesday): In 1H25, adjusted Heps increased 31% to 96.6 cents, supported by strong shareholder investment returns and favourable equity markets. Results from operations rose 16% to R4.9 billion with exceptional growth in Old Mutual Insure. For FY25, the market expects adjusted EPS to jump 30.9% to R1.97 and revenue to plunge 91.9% to R19.68 billion.

Read: Did Old Mutual pick the exact wrong time to launch a bank?

Exxaro Resources (Thursday): In 1H25, Heps increased 13% year on year to R17.24 per share, supported by a 10% increase in group Ebitda and an 18% increase in adjusted equity-accounted income. Revenue rose 8% year on year to R20.6 billion, while Ebitda increased 10% year on year to R5.6 billion, maintaining a margin of 27%. For FY25, the market expects adjusted EPS to grow 5% to R31.69 and revenue to decline 1.3% to R40.2 billion.

Read: Exxaro completes R10.6bn Ntsimbintle manganese acquisition

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Half-year results for Momentum Group will be out on Thursday.

Economic data

Monday will see the Bureau for Economic Research release its inflation expectations survey results for the first quarter of 2026. Inflation expectations fell sharply in the last quarter of 2025, reaching record‐low expectation levels for 2026 and the medium term.

The decline followed the announcement of a lower 3% inflation target, reinforcing disinflation credibility, while wage and growth expectations remain broadly unchanged.

The inflation expectation data for the first quarter comes ahead of the second repo rate decision for the year by the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee.

On Wednesday, data on consumer inflation for February will be published.

Consumer inflation was recorded at 3.5% year on year in January from 3.6% in December. Monthly pressure was 0.2%, mainly driven by core and food pressures which were mitigated by lower fuel prices.

Core inflation was 0.3% month on month, and 3.4% year on year. Average fuel prices fell by 3.4% month on month and 3.7% year on year.

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Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation remained unchanged at 4.4% year on year but posted monthly pressure of 0.4%.

Experts at FNB expect inflation to slow to 3.2% year on year even as health insurance drives monthly pressure of 0.6%. The impact of inflationary pressure from the war in the Middle East is expected to filter through later.

Also on Wednesday, retail sales data for January will be available. Retail sales growth decelerated in December, coming in at 2.6% year on year, down from 3.6% in November. On a month-on-month basis, volume sales declined by 0.4%, partly reversing the 0.6% gains recorded previously.

War in the Middle East

The US-Israel and Iran conflict in the Middle East will enter its third week soon. The global economic fallout from the war will continue to dominate domestic and international headlines.

Global markets are expected to remain volatile in the meantime.

Investment analyst at FNB Wealth and Investment Khumbulani Kunene says: “Our longer-term outlook assumes that the globe will be susceptible to persistent geopolitical recalibration.

“As political fracturing increasingly translates to economic fragmentation, this is likely to sustain the occurrence of shorter and more volatile economic cycles.”

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Compared with the decade preceding the pandemic, this implies a higher frequency of supply-side and confidence shocks, complicating macroeconomic stability.

For many countries that are net importers of petroleum products, Kunene says “we are likely to see these events compounding stagflationary risk, alongside pre-existing trade barriers”.

A more persistent inflation shock would likely slow the pace of monetary policy easing, making the call for the Sarb’s MPC later in the month complicated.

“In such a context, financial conditions would no longer be as conducive and could the speed of economic growth – leaving us with a less optimistic outlook,” Kunene adds.

Listen to this MoneywebNOW podcast with Simon Brown and Old Mutual Wealth investment strategist Izak Odendaal (or read the transcript here):

You can also listen to this podcast on iono.fm here.

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