Shein’s debut shows the cost of IPO missing its growth peak

Shein’s shares long-awaited market debut has come at an awkward time: the fast-fashion retailer’s peak growth years are behind it just as tariffs, regulatory pressure and intensifying competition are making its next phase harder.

Shares fell as much as 10% early in their Hong Kong debut Tuesday, a weak reception for a $1.7 billion initial public offering that capped a years-long listing effort, before closing at HK$48.50, little changed from its HK$48.56 IPO price. The deal valued Shein at a fraction of its peak private valuation, yet investors still questioned whether the company’s growth outlook justified the price. The scepticism was the most apparent shortly after the open, with bids hit three times as often as offers were lifted in early trading.

The challenge is that Shein is reaching public markets after the explosive expansion during the Covid 19 pandemic that made it a global fast-fashion powerhouse. It now faces higher trade barriers following the end of the US de minimis exemption and tougher competition, while cautious consumers add another hurdle. At the same time, investors have increasingly concentrated their appetite — and valuation premiums — on companies tied to AI and robotics.

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“The lackluster IPO opening drop isn’t really about Shein’s execution but rather the unfortunate timing, as it had been impacted by both harsh tariffs and the ending of the de minimis loophole,” said Jeremy Tan, chief executive officer at Tiger Fund Management. “Investors have continued to be relatively more bullish about the AI and robotics trades, as shown in recent strong IPO debuts.”

Shein’s opening slump encapsulated investors’ waning appetite for internet retailers, an industry that has struggled recently against the headwinds of inflation, trade disruptions and consumer caution in key markets including China. The weak reception reflected concerns over intensifying competition, regulatory uncertainty and a market increasingly unwilling to award valuation premiums to companies outside the AI theme.

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The company raised HK$13.6 billion ($1.7 billion) in the offering, which gave the company a market value of slightly more than $26 billion, far below its one-time $100 billion valuation. It’s still one of the world’s largest listed apparel and fashion companies. Swedish competitor Hennes & Mauritz AB is valued at about $30 billion.

“They’ve tried to IPO several times so by now with impatient investors and employees they probably don’t have the luxury of choosing the timing,” said Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee. “Growth is slowing and losses rising amid stiff competition from both e-commerce and fast-fashion players. More critically, its business model continues to be disrupted by evolving international regulations.”

Since its valuation peak, the company has faced mounting challenges including higher tariffs, growing regulatory scrutiny and intensifying competition from PDD Holdings Inc.’s Temu and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s AliExpress. The IPO valued the company at over 15 times forward earnings, calculations based on Bloomberg Intelligence’s estimates show. That’s about double the 7.4 times ratio commanded by PDD and above the 10.7 times multiple for Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index.

Shein’s share sale also coincided with upheaval in its business that resulted in sharply slowing growth and a swing into losses. A key turning point was the US last year ending a trade exemption known as de minimis, which allowed imports worth less than $800 to enter its market without being charged duties. The European Union followed in July, abolishing its own exemption and introducing a €3 duty on items worth €150 ($175) or less, a move aimed at slowing the surge in cheap merchandise imports.

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The emerging environment was in stark contrast with the pandemic, which had turbocharged e-commerce demand from consumers stuck at home, fuelling Shein’s eye-popping 250% sales growth in 2020.

Its expansion slowed as the scale grew and the Covid-era frenzy faded. Shein posted a loss of $99 million in the first three months of 2026, compared with a $395 million profit over the same period a year earlier. Profit was already declining in 2025, while net revenue last year grew 8% — below the company’s target and markedly slower than the 21% increase in 2024.

“Extremely low-margin business models such as cheap, fast fashion tend to be particularly vulnerable to cross-border trade frictions, including tariffs, supply constraints, and heightened geopolitical tensions,” said Gerald Gan, chief investment officer at Reed Capital Partners. “The elevated valuations at the time were partly driven by the surge in online consumption during the pandemic. In my view, that was a temporary and largely sentiment-driven advantage rather than a sustainable structural growth premium.”

Shein CEO Sky Xu at the company’s listing ceremony in Hong Kong on 1 September 2026. Image: Lam Yik/Bloomberg

Back in 2022, Shein was viewed as a formidable disruptor in the global fast fashion industry, with valuation at roughly $100 billion, which was set “in a very different world,” at the tail end of the pandemic and de minimis loopholes still open, according to Achim Berg, founder of FashionSights, a Germany-based advisory firm, and former global head of McKinsey & Co.’s apparel and luxury practice.

A lot has changed since then. Shein’s attempts to list in New York and London went nowhere. Its old playbook is getting harder to run with slowing sales growth, deteriorating profitability and increasing regulation at the cheap e-commerce imports that helped fuel its rise.

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“The best opportunity probably would have been before de minimis actually took off, but they missed that,” Sucharita Kodali, an analyst with Forrester Research, said in a Bloomberg TV interview.

Its new strategy of focusing on brand acquisition and partnership comes with its own complications too. Shein bought US apparel brand Everlane for $80 million in May, giving it an established label to test its supply-chain prowess on. But the US is already reviewing that acquisition over national-security concerns.

“The real question is whether Shein’s extraordinary rise from virtually zero to $42 billion in revenues, putting it among the world’s five largest fashion companies by revenue, can translate into profitable future growth,” said Berg,

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