South African Poll shows ANC leading in Johannesburg before vote

South Africa’s biggest political party retains a narrow lead in voter support in the commercial capital of Johannesburg, two months before the country’s local-government elections, an Ipsos survey shows.

The African National Congress has 31% backing in the city, compared with 28% for its main rival, the Democratic Alliance, according to the results of the survey posted on Ipsos’ website. In the last municipal vote five years ago, the two parties obtained 33.6% and 26.5% respectively.

Current voting intentions suggest Johannesburg, along with the cities of Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City, may see “particularly competitive races” between the two parties, Ipsos said.

Its findings in Johannesburg contrast with a poll last month — carried out by a research firm whose senior personnel include former DA officials — that suggested the ANC has 18% support, compared with 42% for the DA.

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The race to lead Johannesburg is one of the key contests in the November 4 vote. A collapse of basic services like water supply and garbage collection across the city of 4.8 million has sparked protests, while the mismanagement of municipal finances led the National Treasury to temporarily pause funding.

The DA has nominated Helen Zille, the former mayor of Cape Town, as its candidate to take over Johannesburg. The ANC has yet to confirm its nominee.

In Cape Town, the DA commands 46% support in the Ipsos survey, well ahead of the ANC at 26%, but below the threshold required for an outright majority. In 2021, the DA obtained 58.2% backing.

The survey shows the DA’s control of Cape Town is at risk in a city that it’s held up as an example of effective administration. The municipality has made a R40 billion ($2.5 billion) three-year basic infrastructure investment program and fostering an environment that’s conducive to doing business central to its economic strategy.

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In eThekwini, which includes the main port city of Durban, former President Jacob Zuma’s MK party is polling at 55%, giving it majority-level support and putting it substantially ahead of the DA at 17% and ANC at 10%. MK is currently the only party showing a dominant position in a metropolitan municipality, Ipsos said.

The result would represent a major consolidation of MK’s position in the KwaZulu-Natal region, where the party emerged as the dominant force in the 2024 general  elections. MK won 45.4% of the provincial vote in 2024, ahead of the Inkatha Freedom Party and ANC.

The poll was conducted among 3 600 South Africans in June and July, with the results weighted and projected to represent the population of eligible voters. Ipsos cautioned that the figures aren’t a prediction of the final outcome and that support may shift during the remaining two months of campaigning.

The margin of error is also materially larger for individual metros than for the overall registered-voter sample. Ipsos gives a maximum margin of error of 5.57 percentage points for Johannesburg, 6.12 for Cape Town and 6.86 for eThekwini.

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