Betting on 5-minute swings on Bitcoin price are the hot new thing on prediction markets

There is a new trend in prediction markets: betting on whether Bitcoin will go up or down in the next five of fifteen minutes. On Polymarket, a five-minute wager on the price of the largest cryptocurrency has garnered more than $60 million in trading volume in a single day, according to Dune Analytics.

The minute-by-minute wagers on Bitcoin highlight the relative simplicity of bets on prediction markets. As opposed to traditional sports betting, which have an array of complex numbers relating to the spread, moneyline, and total points scored, the prediction market interface has a lower barrier to entry. Users can see what percentage of their peers are voting “yes” about a certain wager and how many are voting “no”. 

On Monday at 1pm ET, some 73% of Polymarket were betting that the price of Bitcoin would go up in the next five minutes. After that five minute interval expired at 1:05 PM ET, the platform promptly served up a new wager for the next five minutes of Bitcoin’s performance and so on. Polymarket-rival, Kalshi, meanwhile is offering bets on whether Bitcoin will go up or down every fifteen minutes. About 37% of users predicted the price would go up between 1:00 PM ET and 1:15 PM ET, but of course that percentage is constantly changing as more people join the betting pool, or close out their existing positions.

These quick-hit bets reinforce how, on prediction market platforms, users can bet on practically anything. People can put money on whether the U.S. will confirm that aliens exist before 2027, which already has seen about $12 million in transaction volume, or whether Jesus Christ will return this year, which is at $45 million in transaction volume. 

Sports are the most popular category to wager on in prediction markets, as they comprise roughly 90% of the bets on Kalshi. Betting on culture has become increasingly popular. Over $120 million was placed on bets about last night’s Oscars on Polymarket and Kalshi, according to Forbes. 

Prediction markets started to receive mainstream attention during the 2024 presidential election, when they correctly predicted Donald Trump’s victory, contrary to many national polls. The two leading platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, are looking to raise money at a $20 billion valuation, according to The Wall Street Journal. 

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