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Crypto rises as long-shot US bill gains better odds of passage

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Crypto markets gained on Monday as optimism over a key US crypto bill revived risk appetite across the digital-asset spectrum.

The rally came as the odds of the market regulation Clarity Act passing this year climbed from as low as around 14% to near 30% on Polymarket, still a long shot but a sharp repricing of its prospects.

Bitcoin — which accounts for around 60% of the market value of all cryptocurrencies — again approached the $80 000 price level, increasing as much as 1.5% to $78,452. Shares of crypto-related companies rallied more, with digital exchange Coinbase Global Inc. jumping as much as 8% and stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group Inc. increasing as much as 6.4%.

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Senators have promised to kick off procedural votes later this week. Ahead of that, Republican senators released a final draft of the bill, with changes addressing some of its most contentious points.

The new version would give the Treasury Secretary power to intervene if deposit flight became “detrimental” to community banks. It also added new ethics guard rails for the president and other elected officials holding cryptocurrencies, which had been a sticking point for Democrats. The new ethics rules would force the president to divest from virtual assets or place significant holdings in a blind trust, or else face financial penalties. It also empowered state attorneys general to play a role in enforcing the ethics rules.

“We believe the ethics compromise as the most important single change, since it was the primary Democratic sticking point,” analysts at Clear Street wrote in a report Monday. The firms see this as “incrementally positive” for Coinbase, Circle and Bullish.

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