Oil declines as supply concerns ease and Iran diplomacy picks up

Oil dropped for a third day as supply concerns eased and traders looked to the next round of diplomacy that’ll shape the US-Iran war.

Brent fell toward $104 a barrel after losing more than 3% over the two previous sessions, while West Texas Intermediate was near $101. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has moved to restore the damaged East-West pipeline to its Red Sea coast, aiming to return about half its capacity within days. At the same time, some tankers continue to traverse the contested Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump told Axios he was approaching a “big decision” on whether to re-escalate attacks on Tehran, with a meeting with Persian Gulf nations planned for next week in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. In addition, the US leader is due to hold a summit with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that may touch upon the war.

Ahead of that, Beijing privately asked Iran to help rein in Houthi militants after an appeal to China by Riyadh, Reuters reported. The Tehran-backed militant group has made advances in Yemen toward the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint in recent days, while also attacking facilities in Saudi Arabia.

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Crude is finishing up a volatile week with supply concerns at the fore, initially gaining ground on the Saudi pipeline disruption before retreating. Global benchmark Brent remains more than 70% higher year-to-date, given the conflicts in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. That’s fanning inflationary concerns, with Goldman Sachs Group predicting more gains for gasoline.

Oil’s recent drop appears to be a cooling of the geopolitical risk premium rather than a fundamental reversal, said Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova Pte in Singapore, who noted prices remain above the $100-a-barrel mark. While sentiment was less aggressively bullish, it’s still far from bearish, with traders awaiting evidence of restored supply, she said.

JPMorgan Chase & Co analysts including Natasha Kaneva said the length of the Iran war and impact on flows was now increasingly hard to predict. “For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don’t have a baseline view,” they said. “We simply don’t know how to model the endgame.”

There’s no consensus on energy volumes transiting Hormuz, the waterway that links the Persian Gulf to global markets. While US Energy Secretary Chris Wright put a recent seven-day average at 11 million barrels a day, Clarksons Research estimates the daily figure at about 8 million barrels.

Prices:

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Brent for November settlement dropped 0.7% to $104.10 a barrel at 11:00 a.m. in Singapore.
WTI for October delivery fell 0.5% to $101.38 a barrel.

Risks to shipping in the waterway persist amid Iranian threats to vessels using routes it regards as unapproved. A Togo-flagged tanker was struck while transiting the conduit, state-run IRIB News reported, citing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp Navy. The report hasn’t been independently verified.

Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco has been looking to secure thousands of tons of diesel in the Mediterranean after strikes on its energy facilities. The pickup predates attacks last week on the East-West pipeline, but coincides with reported incidents involving fuel-making plants in recent months.

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