Navigating the shift toward new energy vehicles in SA

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SIMON BROWN: I’m chatting now with De Wet Taljaard from Investec Sustainable Solutions, De Wet, I appreciate the early morning.

In new energy vehicles rather than just EVs, the NEVs – because this thing brings in hybrids and the like – we are seeing from the data out there significant growth in 2026 compared to last year. Last year was well up on the previous year. South Africans are buying EVs, aggressively so, but still as a small part of the entire car park.

DE WET TALJAARD: Good morning, Simon. Yes, that is the case. There has  been relative growth over the last two years, and specifically in the first half of this year really strong growth numbers in NEV sales.

But as a percentage of total new vehicle sales it’s still below that 5% tipping point that we’ve seen from other markets as sort of a signpost to judge the health of the new energy vehicle sales. But yes, strong sales we’ve seen in the first half of the year.

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SIMON BROWN: I like that sense of ‘tipping point’. Certainly we’ll touch on some of the challenges, such as range anxiety. But as one of the key things I looked at an EV maybe three years ago or so – maybe it was four – and they were expensive. They were in the million-rand ballpark. I can pick one up now for under R400 000.

To be clear, it’s a little run-around, but the point is that the pricing really has become competitive and that must be a big part of the equation, because it simply opens it to a much wider part of the market.

DE WET TALJAARD: Yes, absolutely. The price point of the vehicles is one part of the conversation. More options and consumers having a broader choice of vehicles that suit their lifestyle and their needs really also change the conversation.

So, from what you mentioned, the pure battery electric vehicles, smaller city-type run-arounds below that R400 000 rand mark. We’re also seeing a broader range of plug-in and new energy vehicles in that middle range suiting family lifestyles, but you still have those really high-end, high-performance electric vehicles for those consumers who want to understand and want to experience a different type of electric mobility and vehicle performance.

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SIMON BROWN: Is range anxiety still the big issue? We’re seeing a lot happening in terms of charging stations. I think there are three or four now on the N3 down to KwaZulu-Natal, but is that still the big challenge, range anxiety?

DE WET TALJAARD: It is, and that’s something that is starting to change in the South African market in the minds of consumers. I think when you balance the range anxiety aspects with the total cost of mobility – not only the purchase price of the vehicle, but looking at your ongoing maintenance costs – if you break it down to a cost per kilometre the savings that electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids can provide to consumers, it really starts to tip the scales in the favour of the electric vehicles.  And, as you say, the charging market and the charging infrastructure is catching up.

But where we’ve seen a lot of growth is with those consumers who have a multi-vehicle household – maybe two or three vehicles.

They can still have the vehicle for long-distance travel as South Africans do over Easter and over December, which can be either a plug-in hybrid or a traditional internal combustion engine vehicle.

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But it’s that second and maybe the tertiary vehicle, the city run-around that does the school runs, maybe visits family and friends on the weekends. That’s really where we’re seeing consumers starting to understand that total cost of ownership, that cost of mobility, and how they can really leverage an electric or a new energy vehicle that fits their motoring needs and fits their lifestyle.

SIMON BROWN: That’s a great point, because I often chat with folk from TransUnion around vehicle sales and others, and it keeps coming back that people are looking at total cost, to your point, absolutely.

And then, of course, if I’ve got solar panels on my roof, that cost now absolutely crashes because I’m charging off the sun, and that then fundamentally changes the picture. This goes from moderately cheap to very cheap in many cases.

DE WET TALJAARD: Yes, I think that’s what we’re trying to drive home at Investec Sustainable Solutions: looking at your total home sustainable energy or sustainable mobility, and looking at your solar-and-battery vehicle in conjunction with your electric vehicle.

Unfortunately, during the dark days of load shedding a lot of households were forced to install solar and batteries, and what we’re trying to get across is that this energy transition moving into electric mobility is something where consumers can decide at what point they want to enter, how quickly they want to transition.

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But some of the skills were learned in the load shedding periods – a lot of South Africans have apps on their phones looking at how their household is using energy at what time of the day – and they’ve shifted some of their behaviours, running the tumble dryer only in the middle of the day when you’ve got strong sun. Those sorts of skills and the lessons learned can be transferred to electric mobility.

So, if you have solar and batteries at home, it’s a really small shift just to add an electric vehicle as part of that total home energy view.

And, as you rightly mention, Simon, if you are optimising your batteries and you’re charging your electric vehicles overnight with stored solar energy, or even if your daily commute allows you to only charge your electric vehicles over the weekend when maybe your second or third vehicle is standing in the garage, as you say it can drive your cost per kilometre very, very close to zero.

SIMON BROWN: Absolutely. A quick last question: is the next big shoe to drop the second-hand market? We’re not quite there yet, but when they start to come into the second-hand market, that’s going to be another big jump for the new energy vehicle market.

DE WET TALJAARD: Absolutely. I think the second-hand market, the second-hand new energy vehicle market, will open up electric mobility to a broader sector or broader spectrum of the South African consumer. That will also allow data to flow back to insurance agencies, finance institutions, to understand residual value, secondary value. But that’s one of the aspects.

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As we mentioned earlier, the percentage of new vehicle sales is a tipping point; but the percentage of new energy vehicle second-hand sales is also a secondary tipping point to keep an eye on.

SIMON BROWN: De Wet Taljaard, senior advisor at Investec Sustainable Solutions, appreciate the early morning.

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