More panic buying looms as record fuel prices set to kick in

Fuel associations are on high alert ahead of Wednesday’s fuel price adjustments, with the pending increases expected to drive motorists to the pumps before the clock strikes midnight.

Fuel pumps across the country will be reset after the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) announced an increase in prices across the board.

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Both grades of petrol will cost more than R3 per litre in October, taking 95 octane to a record R30.25 inland.

Wholesale diesel will register an increase of between R2.84 and R3.24 per litre. This will put diesel 0.005% at a new high of R33.29.

This is the second time this year that fuel prices are hitting new records, with motorists, farmers, truckers and other diesel-heavy industries seeing red.

Listen/read: SA fuel supply stable, but panic buying drives shortages

In May, some filling stations were left dry and motorists nearly stranded when the first round of shocks from the Middle East conflict pushed the fuel industry to the brink.

Panic buying was reported in some areas, leading to isolated temporary shortages where demand surpassed the ability to replenish underground tanks fast enough.

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While it’s too soon to tell if similar scenes could play out again this time, Fuel Retailers Association CEO Reggie Sibiya told Moneyweb that “concerns of panic buying can never be dispelled as most of it caused by social media platforms with information not really in line with the reality”.

He said any strain on delivery infrastructure could create a perception of product shortages, as was the case previously.

“We are unfortunately not in control on what feeds the social media space but the industry is planning around managing the consistent supply of product amidst ongoing challenges around the Strait of Hormuz,” Sibiya said in a written response.

He added that with no end in sight to geopolitical conflict, as a net importer of fuel, South Africa will need to brace itself.

Read: Global oil supply buffer running ‘scarily thin,’ Aramco CEO says

The renewed conflict between the US and Iran pushed oil prices up in September, making it the biggest factor contributing to higher prices.

Oil advanced to $100 per barrel last month, after retreating to around $80 in the previous month. It was still at roughly at the same level on Monday.

According to Sibiya, the other ways the fuel industry is likely to be impacted include volumes dropping due to consumers feeling the pitch and spending less.

He said some costs linked to pump prices also rise as prices go up.

“Typically credit card services costs have now become the second largest expense item [for fuel retailers] after wages.

“Credit card costs are not even allocated in our margins thus taking away from an already compromised allocated 42 cents per litre profit margin before tax.”

He also expects increased working capital requirements and interest payable as the price of fuel loads increases over time.

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Brace yourself …

This is how much it will now cost to fill up at the pumps:

October 2026 fuel  prices

Inland
Coastal

Petrol 93 octane
R29.88
R29.09

Petrol 95 octane
R30.25
R29.38

Diesel 0.05% (wholesale)
R31.95
R31.08

Diesel 0.005% (wholesale)
R33.29
R32.03

Illuminating paraffin
R24.47
23.41

LP gas (per kg)
R37.81
R37.08 (Saldanha)

Reaction

The changes to the prices come as no surprise, with projections by the Central Energy Fund hitting it on the mark.

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Political parties and trade unions were among the first to express outrage over the latest fuel price adjustments, describing it as adding another layer to the cost-of-living crisis.

The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) described the escalation of fuel prices as devastating, taking into account the ripple effect on food prices and transport costs.

“The increase in paraffin is particularly shameful because it directly punishes households that are already excluded from affordable and reliable access to electricity. For millions of poor families, paraffin remains essential for cooking and heating,” the party said in a statement.

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Illuminating paraffin will increase by R3.58 per litre at wholesale level, while LP gas will increase by more than 40 cents per kilogram.

Despite government’s previous confirmation that it would not resort to another reduction in the fuel levy at this stage, the EFF has called on National Treasury and DMPR to rethink this decision.

The General Industries Workers Union of South Africa (Giwusa) also believes there is merit in the EFF’s calls.

“The fuel crisis is a policy failure. It is a failure to act on levies when government has the power to do so. It is a failure to safeguard refinery capacity. It is a failure to build and maintain strategic fuel reserves,” Giwusa president Mametlwe Sebei said.

“We demand the immediate suspension of the general fuel levy and the Road Accident Fund levy.”

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Earlier this year, National Treasury reduced the general fuel levy to cushion consumers. That relief was phased out by July.

The intervention pulled more an estimated R17 billion from government in foregone tax revenue.

Read:
Govt slashes levy on diesel to zero, as it extends fuel relief
No further fuel levy relief, as Treasury rebalances books

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