China refiners to refill oil stocks from November, Eurasia says

China’s state-run refiners are set for a months-long effort to replenish oil stockpiles, according to Eurasia Group, after tapping reserves to cushion the impact of elevated prices stemming from the US-Iran war.

Processors are expected to add 400 000 barrels a day to their oil inventories between November and April, according to an Oct. 13 note from the consultancy. Since April, Beijing has centralised crude inventory management and extended the mandatory period required for refiners to replenish stockpiles to three to five months from one to two months, Eurasia said.

“By centralising control over inventory drawdowns and replenishment timing, Beijing ensures it can maintain domestic supply continuity during periods of external disruption without being forced into the market at unfavourable prices — a key pillar of its broader energy security strategy,” the consultancy said.

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China has relied on its vast oil stockpiles and temporarily suspended some fuel exports to protect against surging prices from the US-Iran war. Its strategic petroleum reserve, equivalent to 120 days of crude imports, remains untouched, according to Eurasia, as the conflict heads into an eighth month.

Beijing will likely prioritise domestic fuel supply over export margins, with the National Development and Reform Commission “often waiting until last minute to confirm allocations” for overseas shipments, Eurasia said. Export limits were reinstated in September, it added.

“A blanket export ban is unlikely, as Beijing would be reluctant to disrupt supplies to key trading partners such as Southeast Asian countries and Australia or create another source of friction with the US,” it said.

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