Machado’s return to Venezuela fuels hope for shift to democracy

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado arrived in Caracas Sunday night, capping a daylong journey through five states that drew crowds of supporters and raised expectations for a return to democracy.

Machado emerged through the sunroof of an SUV, waving to throngs of people who had gathered since the afternoon as her caravan passed the toll plaza into Caracas, marking her return to the capital after nearly a year in exile.

While she didn’t deliver formal remarks, she is expected to speak publicly later this week. And the scenes offered clear evidence that Machado — the country’s most popular political leader — can still mobilise her followers despite a lengthy absence.

Her arrival and reception also added urgency to questions about what role Machado will play in a political transition that’s largely advanced without her since US commandos captured authoritarian ruler Nicolás Maduro at the start of the year. He was replaced by his deputy, who has since given US interests effective control over a sizeable chunk of Venezuela’s oil industry.

Machado’s return “absolutely adds pressure to define an electoral timeline and move toward elections,” said Risa Grais-Targow, Latin America director at Eurasia Group. Still, she expects both Machado and acting President Delcy Rodríguez to take a “non-confrontational approach,” at least initially, because both need US backing.

That dynamic could encourage Machado to support transition talks brokered by President Donald Trump’s administration while giving Rodríguez an incentive to avoid confrontation with her, Grais-Targow said.

Machado’s physical presence, however, shouldn’t be underestimated, according to Steven Levitsky, director of Harvard’s David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies. “You’re going to see quite a bit of popular mobilisation behind María Corina,” he said. “It’s going to reshape the balance of power in favor of the opposition.”

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The opposition leader, who had been in Panama for nearly four months, entered Venezuela by land from Colombia over the weekend, according to two people with knowledge of her travel plans, who asked not to be identified because they weren’t authorised to discuss them publicly.

Machado supporters wait for her arrival along a highway into Caracas on October 25.

It remains unclear whether the administration of President Abelardo de la Espriella played any role in her return. The Colombian president didn’t address the matter in a televised address Sunday night, and officials from his office and the Foreign Ministry didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Machado’s arrival in the capital capped hours of impromptu gatherings that recalled the months before Venezuela’s disputed 2024 presidential election, when she crisscrossed the country drawing crowds to rallies in support of the opposition campaign.

The opposition leader was barred from running in that campaign but her stand-in candidate won by a landslide, according to a parallel vote count conducted by the opposition. Authorities instead declared Maduro the winner, an outcome widely rejected by the international community as fraudulent.

Machado went into hiding shortly after the vote, saying she feared for her life as Maduro’s government targeted opposition leaders. She left Venezuela late last year in a clandestine operation to collect her Nobel Peace Prize in Norway.

For many investors, Machado’s return offers another sign that Venezuela’s political transition is moving forward, though analysts differed on how much further that could lift the country’s distressed debt.

“This is an unexpected development and should raise assessments of the probability that a transition is underway,” said Guillermo Guerrero, head of research at EMFI Group. Machado’s return would have been unlikely without the consent of both Washington and Venezuela’s government, he said, adding that progress toward a transition could support bond prices by encouraging oil investment and strengthening the economy ahead of an eventual debt restructuring.

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Alejandro Arreaza, an economist at Barclays, was more cautious. Machado’s return supports the prospect of a transition — a necessary condition for a sustainable economic recovery — but markets already appear to be pricing in an optimistic scenario, he said.

A more durable transition could ultimately help Venezuela secure a lower exit yield in a debt restructuring, Arreaza said. But the resources required to rebuild the economy and address accumulated social demands could also mean creditors have to accept a larger haircut.

The opposition leader first appeared Sunday at a church in Barquisimeto, in western Venezuela, where supporters and party members surrounded her, holding phones aloft to record the moment and reaching out to embrace her. Some cried and shouted “Your people are here” as a visibly moved Machado made her way through the crowd, stopping to hug supporters.

From there, she travelled east toward Caracas in a slow-moving caravan. People rushed toward her convoy along the route, chanting “Freedom!” and “Yes, we can!” as Machado waved through the window, reached out through an open door and at times emerged through the sunroof to embrace children lifted up to her by supporters.

Traffic slowed or stopped on stretches of the country’s main highways as people tried to catch a glimpse of her, with no reported intervention by authorities. The Venezuelan government has yet to publicly react to her return.

Supporters along the route told Machado they hoped her journey home would be followed by that of relatives who emigrated during years of economic and political crisis. Machado heard similar pleas during her 2024 campaign, when people repeatedly asked when conditions would allow their family abroad to return.

Supporters of Machado wait for her arrival in Caracas on October 25.

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While some Venezuelans have come back since Maduro was captured in January, there has yet to be a large-scale reversal of the exodus that sent millions abroad. The pressures that helped drive that migration also persist: 84% of respondents in a recent AtlasIntel survey described the country’s economic situation as bad, while 82% said the same of the labour market and 54% viewed their own family’s economic situation negatively.

Machado has criticised aspects of Trump’s strategy, including a major oil agreement involving Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt, but Grais-Targow expects momentum behind energy deals to continue. Machado has moderated her rhetoric recently, she said. “I don’t see her challenging the oil deals.”

Betancourt made rare public appearances this past week, in one instance addressing Rodríguez remotely from an oil field in Zulia state that he had visited alongside a US State Department delegation.

Machado’s return could alter the balance of power between Venezuela’s government, opposition and the US, Polis Consultores, a Caracas-based consultancy led by Benigno Alarcón, said Sunday in a report to investors.

But the firm cautioned against treating the news as evidence that Venezuela’s transition has become irreversible. Its significance will depend on how the government, opposition and US respond in the coming days, Polis said.

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