Trump’s promise of 300,000 tons of tariff-reduced beef imports to reduce grocery costs falls short

At the nexus of an ongoing affordability crisis and midterm election push, the Trump administration’s effort to reduce beef prices appears to be falling short.

President Donald Trump signed a proclamation in August to temporarily increase the quantity of beef in the U.S. by importing 300,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings into the country at a reduced tariff rate. The imports were scheduled over 90 days, from September through November.

“This deal will reduce prices for Americans while giving space for our Great American Beef Herd to grow again,” Trump wrote on Truth Social announcing the policy. 

But as of Oct. 19, the U.S. has imported just 59,423 metric tons of beef, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data, or just 20% of the target. And ground beef averaged $6.79 per pound as of September, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, down from $6.92 in August, but still above $6.32 a year ago. 

This 7% year-over-year increase in beef, due to persistently high demand as well as dwindling herd sizes, has far outpaced the 2.5%-2.9% hike in overall U.S. grocery prices, which has become representative of America’s affordability woes. Trump has identified beef prices as a key issue to address during the second half of his term, as he targets policy toward the typically loyal Republican base of farmers.

“It really became unacceptable to the voter,” Trump said last month. “And we do have to get elected, because if we’re not going to get elected, your ranchers and your farmers are in big trouble.”

But both farmers and agricultural economists are doubtful that 300,000 tons of imported beef will deliver price cuts, arguing the initiative is ineffective at best, and a financial strain during an already challenging period for the industry at worst.

“The simple assumption there was that if we can just increase supply of beef in the U.S., that should lower prices,” Derrell Peel, a professor of agribusiness specializing in livestock at Oklahoma State University, told Fortune. “Unfortunately, the beef industry is much more complex than that.”

The White House did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

Why Trump’s push for lower beef costs are falling short

Part of why Americans aren’t seeing a noticeable difference in beef costs is because the type of beef being sent from overseas doesn’t typically hit retail shelves, Peel noted. Lean beef trimmings are often combined with fatty trimmings produced from cattle in American feed lots. This combination of beef is usually used by fast food restaurants, not grocery stores where many American consumers are looking for relief.

The use of these lean trimmings as a complement to domestic fatty trimmings also means the demand for this type of beef is already modulated. The beef industry is able to import lean trimmings to meet demand, even absorbing tariffs to do so, according to Peel, and therefore an influx of supply at a cheaper cost doesn’t address the underlying retail cost issue. 

“When you take away the tariff, you make it cheaper, but you don’t necessarily increase the demand because we only need so much of it,” Peel said. “We were getting as much as we wanted.”

In addition, Brazil and Argentina, which account for much of America’s imported beef, have their own supply issues with low beef inventory.

Glynn Tonsor, an agricultural economics professor at Kansas State University, argued that if Trump wanted to truly lower beef prices, the best way to do so would be to not interfere with the prices to begin with, allowing them to rise.

“If you erode beef demand, you will erode beef prices,” he told Fortune. 

Beef demand has stayed high even as prices have soared, increasing 5.9% in the first six months of 2026 compared to the same period a year before. Tonsor blames demand, not smaller cattle herds, for higher prices. Herd sizes have been on the decline for 60 years, he noted, making them a predictable factor for the industry and therefore only partly responsible for more expensive beef. 

If prices remain high, it will effectively destroy demand and eventually ease prices. But that would also slow imports, not increase them, Tonsor said, meaning there would be no need or reasonable expectation for 300,000 metric tons of beef to enter the country.

American farmers’ beef with Trump

Farmers are largely uninterested in an intervention that would lower beef prices. American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall asked Trump to roll back the policy in a statement last month, arguing the imports would lower cattle prices and could cost ranchers $300 to $400 per head. 

“To put it simply, the plan undercut a fragile recovery in the cattle industry while failing to benefit consumers,” Duvall said.

What’s preventing farmers from being more upset about Trump’s import policy is its lack of efficacy, Peel noted. If there were more imports, cattle prices would be depressed, but the modest uptick has not had an overwhelming impact on the industry.

Instead, farmers are most upset about the president’s interference in an industry that has historically favored a free market, Peel explained. 

“Nothing is simple here,” he said. “There’s no simple answer when it comes to anything you might want to do policy-wise to influence this market.”

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