SpaceX's multi-trillion-dollar case rests on a bet not yet launched

From where I live, I’ve watched Starlink evolve. What initially was something people mostly talked about online has become a serious alternative to traditional internet providers. 

The company launching rockets thousands of miles away has entirely changed how people access the internet here at home. And that’s just one part of SpaceX’s growing business.

Millions now depend on it. SpaceX (SPCX) reported third-quarter revenue of $14.6 billion, up 161% from $5.6 billion. Net income was $4.4 billion, versus a $1.1 billion loss a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA hit $8.8 billion, up 306%. 

In the same Q3 fiscal 2026 report, SpaceX confirmed 13.6 million Starlink consumer subscribers, up 1.6 million in the quarter, and Starlink now flies on more than 3,800 aircraft.

SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen said the company is “building the infrastructure of the future with discipline,” focusing on capital efficiency and an investment-grade balance sheet, while moving fast to capture the opportunity.

However, the valuation is now leaning on something not yet launched.

Also Read: Musk predicts ‘guppy-level death’ as SpaceX closes $40B GPU deal

SpaceX’s AI pivot lifts Bernstein’s target

In a note shared with TheStreet, Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned raised his price target to $268 from $248, keeping an Outperform rating, saying terrestrial AI build plans are a material addition to SpaceX’s revenue path.

But Bernstein believes the case for a multi-trillion-dollar valuation rests on orbital data centers working.

SpaceX trades at $146.90 with a $2 trillion market value, so the target implies about 82% upside. The company made $32 billion in revenue over the last 12 months, and analysts forecast 166% growth this year.

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TheStreet reports that SpaceX now projects $500 billion to $1 trillion in revenue through 2027, and Bernstein models $424 billion for 2028. It assumes 13 gigawatts of terrestrial compute by the end of 2027, 5 gigawatts above its prior view, and up to 20 gigawatts in 2028. 

SpaceX says it is getting prices above $30 to $50 per watt in recent deals. Bernstein assumes capital spending of $35 billion per gigawatt. By my math, 20 gigawatts at that rate would cost about $700 billion.

What’s driving SpaceX’s growth?

The business behind that is already large. The Super Intelligence segment added $6.7 billion in revenue from a year earlier, driven by cloud services deals, the Cursor acquisition, and Grok Bot, and nameplate compute reached 1.7 gigawatts.

Raymond James noted that AI revenue exceeded all other segments for the first time.

Connectivity brought in $5.2 billion, up 69%, with income from operations up 99% to $2.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion. Consumer revenue rose 57%, while enterprise and government jumped 91%. That is the subsegment Bernstein says is outperforming.

Related: SpaceX’s Starlink growth creates new problem for AT&T

I see why satellite internet has become such a big deal. Not every area has reliable fiber coverage, and getting connected can be frustrating. That’s what makes Starlink interesting to me. It offers another option where traditional providers struggle to reach.

On the ground, Starlink consumer Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) rose 5% from the prior quarter to $69 a month. SpaceX also agreed to buy 800 MHz spectrum licenses for Starlink Mobile and is expected to close in the first half of 2027.

Space is smaller and costlier. Revenue was $1.8 billion, up just 6% from a year ago, after 12 customer launches, including NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope.

Starship’s first revenue mission delivered 26 Starlink V3 satellites with about 10 times the downlink capacity of a Falcon 9 launch. Space costs rose by $367 million as Starship R&D accelerated.

The launch pipeline grew by three NASA ISS crew missions, 18 National Security Space Launch missions, three commercial Starfall missions, and a Starship lunar payload contract. The company also plans a Louisiana spaceport for thousands of Starship flights a year, with first launch targeted for 2029.

Management guided first-quarter 2027 revenue to $33 billion to $37 billion, well above consensus.

Starlink consumer Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) rose 5% from the prior quarter to $69 a month.

Tarcisio Schnaider / Getty Images

Bernstein sees $268, but the orbital bet decides the rest

Flight 15 is expected within weeks, aiming to catch both the booster and Starship. A heat shield that performed well on Flight 14 could allow Starship’s first reuse on Flight 16. SpaceX plans its first orbital data-center launches in late 2027, with operations starting in mid-2028.

After the results, the Street targets range from Raymond James at $800 to JPMorgan at $500 (up from $240), BofA at $275, Wells Fargo at $274, Goldman at $245, UBS at $230, and TD Cowen at $224.

For investors, the message is that near-term AI and Starlink growth justify a higher target, but the multi-trillion-dollar story depends on data centers in orbit that have not launched yet.

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