World Bank report puts $11.4bn price on off-grid solar

An investment of about $11.4 billion is required over the coming four years to connect hundreds of millions of people to reliable off-grid solar electricity, according to study done by the World Bank and an independent off-grid solar organisation.

And while solar now makes up the largest share of new power capacity added worldwide, off-grid products remain unaffordable for many, according to the World Bank’s Energy Sector Management Assistance Program and the Global Off-Grid Solar Association, or GOGLA.

“Off-grid solar remains the least-cost solution for at least 398 million people without access to electricity and a strong complement to the grid, often serving communities beyond its reach,” it said.

The estimated investment includes about $1.3 billion annually in grants and subsidies, and another $1.6 billion in equity, debt and receivables financing each year, according to the latest Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report.

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Overall, there’s need for $3 trillion to $5 trillion in average annual energy transition investment needed by 2030, it said.

The number of people using off-grid solar products rose 26% to 149 million in the two years to 2025, according to the report. And over the past 15 years, off-grid solar products have generated about $28 billion in additional income and savings for customers.

In sub-Saharan Africa, 47% of solar home system sales in 2025 were in Kenya, Nigeria and Zambia, while sales in most of the rest of West and Central Africa showed little growth.

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About a third of homes without power can afford an entry-level solar home system on a pay-as-you-go basis, spending up to 5% of household consumption expenditure, while another third could afford it at a stretch, spending as much as 10%.

“Off-grid solar has proven it can deliver at scale” in places the grid has not reached,  GOGLA executive rirector Sarah Malm said. “Until governments, investors and development partners treat it as the infrastructure it has become, hundreds of millions of people will wait longer than they should for power.”

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