Prof Booysen: Coalitions are here to stay, but voters are going in blind

South Africa’s local elections are no longer just about who wins.

They are about who can govern – and, increasingly, no party can do it alone.

On this episode of The Ballot Sheet, political scientist Professor Susan Booysen shares a clear message: coalition politics is here to stay.

She predicts that the number of local coalitions will rise from roughly 88 to 110 after the 4 November local government elections, as voters abandon blind political party loyalty and spread their support across smaller formations.

Professor Susan Booysen. Image: Supplied

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That fragmentation reflects a more maturing electorate, but it carries a complexity.

Tiny political parties with a fraction of the vote can become kingmakers, extracting disproportionate power while bearing little accountability.

Booysen is a credible voice around elections. She is an emeritus Professor at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, and an independent research consultant specialising in South African politics, party politics, elections, coalition governance and political analysis.

The ANC’s long decline, characterised by falling electoral support and diminishing political power, has pushed South Africa deeper into this unstable terrain, especially in key metros.

Coalitions can work, Booysen argues, but only if they are built around power-sharing, political maturity among politicians, transparency and service delivery rather than power-grabbing. Too often, local coalitions have been marked by instability and governance paralysis.

That is where the stalled Coalitions Bill matters. The bill, which is currently stuck in parliament, was meant to bring regulation and stability to coalitions by bringing thresholds, conflict-resolution mechanisms, and deadlines for forming governments. But it will not pass before the elections. Voters, as Booysen says, are going into the polls blind.

Without that legal scaffolding, accountability will depend on voters themselves.

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Public opinion is increasingly acting as a whip against parties that take voters for granted.

But in a coalition system, that accountability is harder to enforce: residents may not have voted for the party that ends up running their municipality.

The bottom line? Coalitions are not just elite bargains. They are governance arrangements. If they fail to deliver basic services and stability, the cost will be borne by the residents who already face some of the country’s deepest municipal failures.

You can also listen to this podcast on iono.fm here.

Watch other episodes of The Ballot Sheet:
ActionSA’s fixer: Zwakele Mncwango’s 10-point plan for eThekwini
IFP’s Mkhuleko Hlengwa takes the accountability fight to eThekwini
From Langa to City Hall: Nolutshungu’s EFF bid to lead Cape Town
Hoosen: The DA veteran who wants to fix eThekwini’s water crisis
Herron’s GOOD fight to unite Cape Town’s two cities
Mkhaliphi puts communities at the centre of her EFF eThekwini campaign
Zille: ‘I’m committed to Joburg and getting it on the right track’
Mashaba: ‘I have unfinished business in Joburg’
‘God first’: The Patriotic Alliance’s vision for Joburg
Dr Tlaleng Mofokeng’s EFF prescription for Joburg 

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