Rivian, Uber stocks struggle, but robotaxi deal could change the story

Shares of Rivian (RIVN) and Uber (UBER) have both been under pressure in recent months, as investors weigh profitability concerns and slowing growth expectations.

Rivian stock has dropped more than 33% from its December 52-week high and is down about 24.3% year to date.

Uber stock is down roughly 9% this year and has fallen about 22% since its Nov. 4 earnings report. Both stocks are underperforming the S&P 500, which has slipped about 5% year to date.

That backdrop makes their latest move especially important.

Uber, Rivian robotaxi deal could reshape growth outlook

On March 19, Rivian and Uber announced a major robotaxi partnership that could reshape both companies’ growth stories.

Uber plans to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian and deploy as many as 50,000 fully autonomous R2 vehicles on its platform.

The vehicles are expected to launch in San Francisco and Miami in 2028, with expansion to as many as 25 cities across North America and Europe by 2031.

“We’re big believers in Rivian’s approach, designing the vehicle, compute platform, and software stack together, while maintaining end-to-end control of scaled manufacturing and supply in the U.S.,” Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahisaid in a press release.

The partnership gives Rivian a large-scale commercial path for its autonomous driving technology, backed by a well-capitalized partner.

And for Uber, it brings the possibility that robotaxis could become a key upside driver.

Uber’s strategy is likely to become a platform for autonomous vehicles rather than owning them directly.

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Rivian earnings highlight ongoing profitability challenges

The news comes shortly after Rivian reported quarterly results that showed improving performance but ongoing losses.

For the fourth quarter, Rivian reported an adjusted loss of 54 cents per share, narrower than the 68-cent loss expected. Revenue reached $1.29 billion, beating estimates of $1.26 billion, CNBC reported.

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For the full year 2025, revenue rose 8% to about $5.4 billion. The company also reported its first annual gross profit of $144 million.

However, that profit was driven largely by Rivian’s software and services segment, including its joint venture with Volkswagen, which helped offset $432 million in losses in its automotive business.

The company is expected to remain unprofitable as it ramps production of its lower-cost R2 vehicle.

Alongside the Uber deal, Rivian said it no longer expects adjusted EBITDA to turn positive in 2027, citing increased research and development spending tied to its autonomous driving roadmap, according to an SEC filing.

Rivian now expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of between $2.1 billion and $1.8 billion in 2026.

Morgan Stanley: Uber stock upside may not be priced in

Morgan Stanley sees the partnership as a positive development for Rivian and a potentially bigger opportunity for Uber stock.

For Rivian, the firm said the deal validates its autonomous driving platform and provides additional capital support.

Related: Morgan Stanley has a stark message for investors in Palantir stocks

“Similar to Rivian’s joint venture with Volkswagen, the deal brings in funding from a well-capitalized partner investing heavily in autonomous driving,” the firm said.

For Uber, Morgan Stanley said the deal “further advances its strategy of enabling multiple autonomous vehicle players within a rapidly developing AV ecosystem.”

Uber also announced partnerships with Amazon’s Zoox, Motional, Wayve, and Nvidia, reflecting its potential strategy to become a platform for autonomous vehicles rather than owning them directly.

That strategy may not yet be reflected in Uber’s valuation.

“With Uber’s U.S. rides business arguably trading at a low single digit EBITDA multiple, success in autonomy is not currently reflected in the valuation and could become a meaningful driver of multiple expansion,” Morgan Stanley said.

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