Trump questions if Iran deal is possible

US President Donald Trump has sent conflicting signals on the prospect that talks with Iran would bring a halt to the nearly month-long war, further roiling global energy markets.

“I say they’re lousy fighters, but they’re great negotiators, and they are begging to work out a deal,” Trump said Thursday during a cabinet meeting at the White House.

“I don’t know if we’ll be able to do that. I don’t know if we’re willing to do that,” he said, and separately threatened to intensify military action if talks failed.

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Asked whether his five-day deadline (Friday) for a deal would be extended, the US president was blunt: “I don’t know yet.”

Trump said special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, as well as Vice President JD Vance “will tell me whether or not they think it’s going along”.

He added “we have a lot of time” before the deadline, issued Monday morning in Washington, expires.

“It’s a day. In Trump time, a day, you know what it is? That’s an eternity,” he added.

Oil prices surged, with optimism fading of a quick resolution to the conflict.

Brent crude climbed 6% to more than $108 a barrel, while stocks and bonds fell worldwide.

Iran also waiting for a response …

Earlier on Thursday, Iran confirmed, through the Tasnim news agency, that it is waiting for a response after rejecting a US 15-point plan to end the war and offering its own conditions.

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Those include a guarantee that the US and Israel won’t resume their attacks, the payment of reparations for war damages and recognition of Iran’s authority over the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran is also calling for an end to the war on all fronts, Tasnim reported, a likely reference to Israel’s parallel war against the Tehran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon.

Witkoff confirmed on Thursday that the 15-point proposal had been delivered to Iran through Pakistani mediators, without giving details, and offered a more optimistic tone. He said it had led to “strong and positive messaging and talks”.

The US has compiled a list of a dozen demands alongside three points Iran would get in return, according to people familiar with the matter.

Trump in a social media post earlier on Thursday warned that Iran “better get serious soon” – otherwise “it won’t be pretty!”.

Trump is under pressure to persuade Tehran to reopen the critical waterway for oil and gas flows, a step needed to arrest a global supply shock.

He said on Thursday that Iran had allowed 10 boats of oil to sail through the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a US insurance programme meant to boost shipping through the waterway will begin soon.

Risk of further escalation

The White House, meanwhile, has ordered more troops to the region, with some set to arrive before week’s end – underscoring the risk of further escalation.

On Thursday, Trump repeated an earlier timeline of four- to six-weeks for military operations and said the US war effort is “ahead of schedule”.

Trump has faced questions on the duration of the war effort, including from his own party’s lawmakers ahead of the US’s November midterm elections.

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US Senator Lisa Murkowski, an Alaska Republican, said the administration isn’t providing answers on the scope and purpose of military operations in Iran in closed-door briefings. She’s working on legislation to authorise operations in order to set an end goal for the war.

“I don’t know what else to do,” she said.

“I’m worried we get out of town and the president goes in with ground troops aiming for a full takeover.”

Both sides kept up their air attacks on Thursday.

The Israel Defence Forces completed a wave of strikes in the central Iranian city of Isfahan, while Iran’s state TV said the country had begun another wave of missile strikes against Israel. Two people were killed after debris from an intercepted missile fell in Abu Dhabi.

Iran is looking to formalise a transit fee for the Strait of Hormuz, with lawmakers working on a draft bill to impose a toll in exchange for providing security to ships, according to the Fars news agency. The strait is a conduit for about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

The Islamic Republic is still able to export its own crude from the strait, likely earning hundreds of millions of dollars of extra income.

The conflict has led to surging fuel and fertiliser prices, and sparked fears of an inflation crisis and worldwide food shortages.

The OECD on Thursday sharply increased its inflation forecasts for major economies and now sees the average rate for G20 countries this year jumping to 4% – with an even higher pace in the US – rather than the 2.8% it predicted in December.

War or peace?

Trump has publicly signalled any peace agreement would have to include a prohibition on Iran ever obtaining a nuclear weapon or enriching radioactive material for civilian purposes.

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The US plan also stipulates that the Islamic Republic use a reduced missile arsenal in self-defence only, according to people familiar with the matter. Iran would receive certain concessions in return, including sanctions relief.

It’s still unclear who the US is negotiating with since several top Iranian government and military officials have been killed.

Israeli officials have shown no inclination to end the fighting.

“At this stage we are still at war, and when it might end, no one knows,” Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen told radio station Galey Israel.

Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are considering joining the war against Tehran, several people with knowledge of the situation said this week.

“We can’t let Iran hold the US, the United Arab Emirates and the global economy hostage,” UAE Ambassador to the US Yousef Al Otaiba wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed.

“A simple cease-fire isn’t enough. We need a conclusive outcome that addresses Iran’s full range of threats.”

More than 4 500 people have been killed in the conflict, according to governments and non-government agencies.

Around three-quarters of the fatalities have been in Iran, while almost 1 100 people have died in Lebanon, where Israel is fighting a parallel war against Iran-backed Hezbollah militants and has displaced more than a million people. Dozens have been killed in Israel and Arab Gulf states.

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