Congo to top Ethiopia to become sub-Saharan Africa’s fifth-largest economy

The Democratic Republic of Congo is poised to overtake Ethiopia to become sub-Saharan Africa’s fifth-largest economy this year, the International Monetary Fund said, buoyed by a mining boom and a strengthening currency.

The fund estimates Congo’s gross domestic product will be $123 billion in 2026, higher than Ethiopia’s $122 billion. South Africa will retain top spot, followed by Nigeria, Angola, and Kenya.

Congo last week raised $1.25 billion from its first sale of dollar bonds, taking advantage of a ceasefire in the war between the US and Iran that’s shaken markets.

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The nation is leveraging its vast mineral wealth to deepen ties with global investors, positioning itself as a key beneficiary of booming demand for battery metals. The world’s top cobalt producer and second-largest source of copper is striking deals with US firms and attracting fresh exploration, including KoBold Metals Co’s large-scale lithium push, while China’s Zijin Mining Group Co advances what could become one of the world’s biggest lithium projects.

Its currency has appreciated by more than a quarter against the dollar over the past 12 months, in contrast to Ethiopia’s birr, which has weakened by about 17%.

The Horn of Africa nation liberalised the birr in 2024 after decades of tight controls, contributing to the depreciation. Authorities have since sought to stabilise the currency, spending at least $1.35 billion buying birr this year.

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Ethiopia is also grappling with fuel shortages in part due to the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy chokepoint carrying about a quarter of global seaborne oil, and has urged citizens to use supplies sparingly.

The IMF forecasts Congo’s economy will grow 5.9% this year, compared with 9.2% for Ethiopia, while sub-Saharan Africa overall is expected to expand 4.3%.

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