Oil dips after three-day gain with Iran peace talks at impasse

Oil slipped after rising almost 8% over the past three sessions as a resolution to the Middle East conflict remains elusive, with Iranian exports showing further strain from a US Naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude fell below $107 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $101. There were no ocean-going tankers observed at Iran’s Kharg Island over the past several days, satellite images show, the first sign of an extended halt at the nation’s main export hub since the hostilities began.

The Iran war is unlikely to feature heavily in talks between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing this week, the US leader told reporters at the White House on Tuesday, saying trade discussions would be prioritized. He added that, “we have Iran very much under control.”

Despite that reassurance, the war is likely to heap domestic pressure on Trump after US data on Tuesday underscored how the conflict is reigniting inflation. American gasoline prices have surged to the highest since 2022 — a politically sensitive development ahead of crucial midterm elections in November.

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The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the war over 10 weeks ago, with a US blockade of Iranian ports in mid-April adding another sticking point in diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. Flows of crude, natural gas and fuels have been choked off, stoking concerns about global growth.

“The central risk for both policymakers and markets” is the timing mismatch between the futures and the physical market, Societe Generale SA analysts including Ben Hoff wrote in a note. “Prices respond immediately to reopening headlines, but physical balance improves much later.”

The conflict has thrown energy supply chains into disarray, especially for Asian nations such as Japan, which typically relied on the Middle East for about 90% of its crude. The nation’s refiners have been scrambling for alternatives, including a recent purchase of Mexican oil, the first since 2023.

Prices:

Brent for July settlement was 1.2% lower $106.49 a barrel at 12:13 p.m. in Singapore after closing 3.4% higher on Tuesday.
WTI for June delivery dipped 1.2% to $100.93 a barrel.

In another sign of wider strain, Vietnam’s state oil company has urged the US to let a supertanker laden with crude pass through its naval blockade outside the Persian Gulf, saying the shipment is vital to its economy. The vessel previously crossed Hormuz but U-turned on Monday near the cordon.

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After bumper volumes earlier in the month, the number of contracts changing hands has faced a steady decline this week, with around 920,000 lots of Brent traded daily in the week so far. The figure was as much as 1.9 million contracts in the middle of last week.

Oil is “staying elevated and I believe we’re pricing for what is expected: higher for longer,” said Carl Larry, an analyst at Enverus.

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