Jim Cramer has a surprising take on Elon Musk's OpenAI loss

Some courtroom wins look better on the scoreboard than on the balance sheet. Wall Street has watched two of them play out in the last quarter-century, from the antitrust case that hobbled Microsoft in 2001 to the one that hung over Google for most of the 2020s, and in both cases the supposed loser walked out larger and more entrenched.

That is the awkward pattern that walked into a federal courtroom in Oakland, California, on Monday, May 18.

A nine-member advisory jury needed less than two hours to throw out the most-watched case in the artificial intelligence industry, according to NPR.

The verdict landed before lunch. OpenAI’s lawyers were already framing it as vindication. The market reaction read like a clean win for one side.

But the cable hot take that ran on CNBC’s “The Exchange” within the hour tells a very different story. Jim Cramer made the case that the loser in court is actually the winner of the fight that matters.

For investors holding any exposure to OpenAI, Microsoft (MSFT), or the broader AI rally, that argument matters more than the verdict.

Jim Cramer reveals what Elon Musk really won in OpenAI loss

Photo by Rusty Jarrett on Getty Images

What just happened in the OpenAI verdict

A nine-member advisory jury in Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers’s courtroom in Oakland unanimously found that Musk waited too long to sue, per NPR.

The jurors decided he was aware of the conduct he later challenged as early as 2021, three years before he filed his August 2024 case.

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Rogers accepted the advisory finding within minutes and dismissed all claims. “The court now confirms the prior indication that it would accept the jury’s findings as its own,” Rogers said, according to CNN.

If the jury had sided with Musk, OpenAI and Microsoft could have been forced to pay up to $150 billion into the OpenAI charitable foundation, per NPR. Musk had also sought the removal of Altman and President Greg Brockman from their posts and the dismantling of the for-profit entity.

None of that is happening now.

Musk called the verdict a “calendar technicality” on X (formerly Twitter) and said he will file an appeal with the Ninth Circuit. 

Related: Elon Musk makes shocking admission about Sam Altman and OpenAI

Why Cramer thinks Musk still won this OpenAI fight

Cramer’s argument on CNBC’s “The Exchange” was blunt. Musk did not need to win the case to win the war.

The lawsuit dragged on for almost two years. It pulled in Altman, Brockman, and a parade of senior OpenAI engineers. It pulled in Microsoft. It pulled in valuation conversations, IPO timing, and a $97.4 billion bid Musk’s investor group made for OpenAI itself in February 2025, according to eWeek.

Cramer had flagged the case as a real threat to OpenAI’s IPO path months before the trial. “This Musk suit against OpenAI is the real deal and not a good one for OpenAI if and when it wants to go public,” he wrote on X in January, adding that the AI company would need a private fundraising round at a strong valuation before any trial.

OpenAI did exactly that. The startup now carries a private valuation near $730 billion, according to The New York Post.

I have spent enough time staring at late-stage private market sheets in the last six months to recognize the pattern. OpenAI’s bankers knew this trial was coming and built a moat of private dollars before any verdict could land.

Musk did not pull off the legal kill. He forced a defense that consumed cash, executive attention, and credibility.

What this OpenAI verdict means for your AI portfolio

Three names move on this verdict. Each in a different direction.

Microsoft sits on the cleanest side of the ledger. The largest outside backer of OpenAI is no longer staring at a possible forced disgorgement, and any near-term IPO of OpenAI would mark up Microsoft’s stake.

Tesla (TSLA) and Musk’s xAI sit on the more complicated side. xAI competes head-on with OpenAI. A successful Musk suit would have crippled the biggest rival. The verdict removes that overhang, and the appeal stretches it.

OpenAI itself is the wildcard. The company can now move toward a listing without an active fraud claim hanging over the prospectus. But the appeal keeps the litigation risk live for at least another year.

Here is the timeline that matters for anyone holding AI exposure:

2015: OpenAI founded as a nonprofit, with Musk contributing roughly $38 million in early funding, per CNN.2018: Musk leaves the OpenAI board after disagreements over direction, per The Washington Post.August 2024: Musk refiles his OpenAI lawsuit, naming Altman, Brockman, and later Microsoft, according to CNBC.February 2025: Musk-led investor group bids $97.4 billion for OpenAI; the board rejects the offer, per eWeek.May 18, 2026: Jury dismisses all claims on statute of limitations grounds, according to NPR.

When I ran my own analysis against Kalshi’s prediction market data, the swing was sharp. Musk’s win odds had climbed to 57% the week before trial, according to Benzinga. The verdict shows just how thin that consensus reading really was.

Where the OpenAI fight goes from here

Musk’s appeal is the next chapter, not a footnote.

The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals is the next stop. Statute of limitations defenses are notoriously hard to overturn, but Musk’s lawyers will argue the relevant clock should have run from OpenAI’s for-profit restructuring in 2023 and 2024, not 2021.

“There is no question to anyone following the case in detail that Altman and Brockman did in fact enrich themselves by stealing a charity,” Musk wrote on X after the verdict. “The only question is when they did it.”

William Savitt, OpenAI’s lead attorney, took the opposite view. The lawsuit, he said, was a “hypocritical attempt to sabotage a competitor,” according to CNN.

Both can be true at the same time.

OpenAI’s path to a public listing now runs through the Ninth Circuit instead of the trial court. The case keeps moving. The appeal keeps generating headlines. Microsoft’s stake keeps getting marked higher with each fundraising round.

What changes today is the discount investors are willing to apply to OpenAI’s valuation. What does not change is the fact that the man who once funded the company is still trying to dismantle the thing it has become.

For anyone holding the AI rally through Microsoft, Nvidia (NVDA), or any of the second-tier picks-and-shovels names, that is a story to keep an eye on through 2027.

Related: Jim Cramer spots hidden upside in a surging chip stock

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