Trump threatens Iran with ‘big hit’ if there’s no deal soon

President Donald Trump threatened to resume strikes on Iran in the coming days as part of the push for a deal to end the war, after he said he had just called off a US attack.

“I hope we don’t have to do the war, but we may have to give them another big hit,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday. When asked how long he would wait, he said: “Well, I mean, I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Something maybe early next week — a limited period of time.”

Trump’s comments once again raised the prospect of a return to active hostilities with Iran, which has so far refused to bow to Trump’s demands to relinquish the remaining elements of its nuclear programme after weeks of strikes that began in late February. But the president has repeatedly threatened — and then backed off from — renewed military action since a truce was agreed on April 8.

The conflict has shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for oil and gas flows, causing global energy prices and inflation to surge. Yields on the US Treasury’s longest-dated bonds rose to the highest level in almost two decades on investor concerns about the Middle East war’s growing macroeconomic impact.

Speaking on Tuesday afternoon, Vice President JD Vance projected a slightly more positive tone on the negotiations, even as he, too, threatened a resumption of strikes. “We think that we’ve made a lot of progress, we think the Iranians want to make a deal,” he said, adding that “option B” was restarting the military campaign.

“But that’s not what the president wants,” he continued. “And I don’t think it’s what the Iranians want either.”

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Despite losing many of its senior leaders and a huge amount of its military assets to US and Israeli bombing, Iran’s regime has survived and frustrated US officials by maintaining a chokehold over Hormuz, pushing up fuel pump prices in the US to their highest in almost four years.

Trump said on Monday he held off on a new bombardment of Iran planned for Tuesday at the request of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The president has previously attributed policy shifts on the Iran war to requests from allies and partners, including mediator Pakistan.

Brent crude fell around 1% on Tuesday, trading above $110 a barrel following Trump’s announcements late Monday. The benchmark is still up more than 50% since the war erupted with US-Israeli strikes on Iran and traders remain on edge about the possibility of a return to hostilities.

Shipments through Hormuz have dwindled once again, though traders are closely watching whether the NATO alliance will help ships pass through the waterway if it isn’t reopened by early July.

While Trump regularly moves financial markets with his comments about Iran, market analysts said some of that impact is fading as the president issues threats that he doesn’t follow through on.

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“These hot air verbal interventions from Trump used to have a heavy bearish impact on prices, but they now seem to have less and less effect, unless they are backed by reality,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. “As far as we can see, there has been no real progress in the negotiations between the US and Iran, with both sides still standing by their previous demands.”

The shakiness of the truce was underscored on Sunday when the UAE’s nuclear-energy plant of Barakah was hit by a drone, causing a fire at a power station and forcing engineers to switch on emergency generators.

The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog announced late Monday that normal power had been restored at Barakah, easing safety concerns over the Middle East’s biggest atomic plant.

Tehran has signaled it could again strike its Gulf neighbors if the US renews its attacks.

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