Jensen Huang has bold new market cap prediction for Nvidia

There is a number most people stop being able to picture once it gets past a billion. You can imagine a million dollars. You can almost imagine a billion.

A trillion is already abstract. Five trillion, however, is folklore.

That is the territory Nvidia (NVDA) is now operating in, and it is the part of the artificial intelligence (AI) story the average investor has the hardest time pricing. The chipmaker became the first company in history to reach $5 trillion in market value last year, and it has spent most of 2026 trading inside a band no other public company has ever touched.

Earlier in May 2026, shares briefly pushed the market cap past $5.5 trillion, according to Stocktwits.

When I went looking for a credible new ceiling to anchor on, the most useful comment I found did not come from Wall Street. It came from the CEO.

Speaking at a Taipei launch celebration for Nvidia’s planned new Taiwan headquarters on May 27, Jensen Huang said the company “will be worth even more in three to five years,” according to Reuters.

That came alongside a pledge to spend roughly $150 billion a year in Taiwan, up from the $10 billion to $15 billion Nvidia was spending there four to five years ago.

Why Taiwan is now the center of Nvidia’s growth story

The Taiwan number is the part of the announcement that should grab portfolio managers first, because it puts a hard dollar figure on something Huang has been talking around for two years.

Nvidia is not just buying chips from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). It is rebuilding its supply chain in the country.

“Taiwan is the epicentre of the AI revolution. This is where the chips come, packaging comes, this is where the systems are made, this is where AI supercomputers were created,” Huang said, Reuters confirmed. He told the crowd that the new headquarters will break ground this year, aim to be operational in 2030, and employ 4,000 people.

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The scale of the spend matters because it is also a forecast. Nvidia does not commit $150 billion a year to a single island unless management already sees the demand behind it.

Huang told investors last week that new products will help the company beat the $1 trillion sales forecast it has set for its flagship Blackwell and Rubin AI chips through 2027, reported CNBC. That figure is double the $500 billion forecast he gave at GTC last October.

The Vera Rubin platform sits at the center of all of it. A single Vera Rubin system contains close to two million components and involves roughly 150 Taiwanese supply chain partners, according to TradingKey. Every layer of that supply chain, from advanced packaging to power supplies, gets pulled into the spending plan.

Nvidia “will be worth even more in three to five years,” said CEO Jensen Huang.

Photo by I-HWA CHENG on Getty Images

What a $10 trillion Nvidia market cap would actually mean

The $5 trillion-plus number is already disorienting. The next leg is harder to make real.

Huang told a podcast audience earlier this year he sees a path to a $10 trillion market cap for Nvidia, according to I/O Fund founder Beth Kindig. May 27’s Taipei comments suggest he has not backed off from that view.

When I ran the math against IMF World Economic Outlook data, the comparison stops looking like a stock chart and starts looking like a map. Nvidia at $10 trillion would be larger than the entire economic output of every country on Earth except the United States, which the IMF projects at $32.4 trillion in 2026.

A few markers make the scale concrete:

The IMF puts China’s projected 2026 GDP at $20.9 trillion, the second-largest economy on the planet, according to Statistics of the World.Germany, the world’s third-largest economy, is projected at $5.4 trillion in 2026, reported Visual Capitalist.India is projected at $4.15 trillion in 2026, ranked sixth globally, per the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook cited by Statistics of the World.

Nvidia’s current $5 trillion-plus cap already clears Germany’s GDP. Doubling it would clear China’s. That is the order of magnitude Huang is asking shareholders to underwrite.

Wall Street has not gone all the way to $10 trillion in published targets, but several banks are creeping closer.

Bank of America has a $320 price target on Nvidia, implying roughly 45% upside from current levels, according to Stocktwits. Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore carries an overweight rating with a $260 target and called the current valuation “a surprisingly good entry point” in a recent client note, reported TheStreet.

What investors should watch next from Nvidia

Three things should sit at the top of the watch list.

Vera Rubin production: The Computex 2026 keynote opens next week in Taipei, and the platform’s ramp into the second half of 2026 is the demand cycle Huang’s $1 trillion sales call depends on.China forecast: Nvidia is assuming zero Data Center compute revenue from China in its second-quarter outlook, which means any easing of export rules from the Trump administration becomes pure upside, per Nvidia’s Q1 fiscal 2027 SEC filing.The customer base: Hyperscalers are now signing three-year supply contracts, some with full upfront prepayments, according to TheStreet’s coverage of Morgan Stanley’s analyst note. That is the kind of contract structure you sign when you are not worried about the cycle peaking.

My take after running the numbers: Huang’s three-to-five-year prediction is bold, but it is not a stretch dressed up as one. The Taiwan spend is real, the Vera Rubin order book is real, and the hyperscaler prepayments are real.

The harder question for shareholders is no longer whether Nvidia gets to $10 trillion. It is whether the rest of the equity market can grow into a world where one chipmaker is worth more than every country except the United States.

That is the question the next four earnings reports will begin to answer.

Related: Jensen Huang has bold new message after Nvidia Q1 beat

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