Oil shock: Brace for R5/l to over R8/l SA fuel spike

It’s a fluid situation – but the oil price spike to over $115 a barrel on Monday morning is set to be a major shock to world markets, fuel prices and ultimately the pockets of ordinary South Africans.

Speaking to Moneyweb, Stanlib chief economist Kevin Lings now calculates that at a global oil price of $120, SA’s under-recovery in the petrol price would “jump to around R5.40/l and R10/l for diesel”. This would mean an even sharper increase in April if oil stays at current levels and rand weakness continues.

Read:
Oil soars toward $120 as Iran war forces more production cuts
Over R2trn JSE wipeout

On Monday, the rand traded weaker against the dollar, at R16.86 just after 9am.

Rand vs dollar 

“At $100 a barrel, the petrol price under-recovery is around R4.50/l and diesel at about R8.30/l,” says Lings.

The above calculations exclude the inflation-linked increases in fuel levies (effective from April, unless government steps in) announced by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana in the 2026 Budget in February.

ADVERTISEMENT

CONTINUE READING BELOW

“The big question is how long it [global oil prices] stays there, or whether it goes higher. SA fuel price increases are determined by the monthly average under-recovery,” says Lings.

He warned last week of the current ‘massive’ under-recovery in the petrol and diesel prices, in the wake of the Middle East conflict. That was when the Brent crude price had spiked to just below $80 a barrel, and the forecast under-recovery was between R2 and R4 a litre.

Brent crude price 

Read:
Government ‘closely watching’ the oil price and jet fuel situation – Creecy
April fuel prices set to rocket

In an X post on Monday, market analyst Keith McLachlan warned:

Oil price at >$80 is mixed with some sectors benefiting and some not. Oil at >$100 is a systemic shock to the global economy like a global central banker doubling global interest rates.

— Keith McLachlan (@keithmclachlan) March 9, 2026

ADVERTISEMENT:

CONTINUE READING BELOW

The shock is set to fuel inflation in SA, with several economists, including Lings, saying interest rate cuts forecast at the start of the year are now off the table, and there could in fact be rate hikes depending on how long the Middle East crisis lasts.

“The length and area of the conflict are key to how much this affects the world,” McLachlan tells Moneyweb.

According to market commentator Johann Biermann, the rand price of Brent crude has jumped over 71% in March alone.

Listen: Oil spike: Bad news for almost everything

You can also listen to this podcast on iono.fm here.

#Oil #shock #Brace #R5l #R8l #fuel #spike