Miami beats Los Angeles and New York for highest housing bubble risk

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Miami has officially been crowned the most at-risk housing market in the world, surpassing notoriously expensive hubs like Los Angeles and New York.

While Florida’s tax-friendly climate continues to lure billionaires fleeing high-tax states like California, local homeowners are facing a perfect storm of record-low affordability, massive condo repair bills and surging insurance premiums, according to a new report.

UBS’ Global Real Estate Bubble Index for 2025 puts Miami in the No. 1 spot for the real estate market with the highest bubble risk, with a score of 1.73, well above the 1.5 threshold for “high risk.” That figure exceeds the peak of the 2006 housing bubble.

“Over the past 15 years, Miami has posted the strongest inflation-adjusted housing appreciation among all cities in the study,” the report says.

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“Cities with elevated or high bubble risk continued to decouple from fundamentals: over the last five years, inflation-adjusted home prices increased nearly 25% on average, while rents rose about 10% and incomes about 5%,” it continues.

An aerial view of high-rise residential towers and single-family homes in Miami Beach, Florida. (Getty Images)

“By contrast, prices in cities with moderate or low risk fell roughly 5%, while rents and incomes were broadly flat. Historically, worsening affordability and widening gaps between prices and rents have served as forerunners of housing crises.”

Although Florida remains attractive for its zero-income tax and a potential zero-property tax, the report notes a regulatory squeeze is hitting the state’s middle class as owners of older condominium units are getting hit with rising maintenance and reserve costs.

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“While price growth is expected to turn negative in the coming quarters, a sharp correction appears unlikely at this stage,” says the report.

The Magic City has been a fiscal sanctuary for names like Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, venture capitalist Peter Thiel, Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg – some of whom recently moved out of California ahead of a proposed wealth tax.

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“Miami’s coastal appeal and favorable tax environment continue to attract newcomers from the U.S. West and Northeast, with real estate prices still well below those in New York and Los Angeles,” UBS notes.

Miami and Los Angeles are leading the U.S. in bubble risk, as “law and order” or “quality of life” issues in cities like San Francisco are impacting their housing trajectories, the report adds.

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