Popular Swiss Bank resets gold price target for the rest of 2026

Gold has pulled back sharply from its January highs. Union Bancaire Privée (UBP) is not moved. It’s not bulging.

The Swiss private bank, which manages approximately $233 billion in client assets, reaffirmed its $6,000 per ounce gold price target on April 13, even as gold trades roughly 15% below its January all-time high of approximately $5,600. The bank is also actively rebuilding its gold positions after cutting exposure during the Iran war selloff.

What UBP did during the gold selloff

UBP cut its gold allocation from approximately 10% to 3% of discretionary client portfolios during the Iran war-driven slump, according to FinanceMagnates. It has since rebuilt that position to approximately 6%.

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“We have taken the first steps to rebuild gold portfolios after the flush-out of one-sided positions,” said Paras Gupta, Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management Asia at UBP.

Gupta said that institutional and retail gold positioning is now “quite balanced” and that structural demand, including central bank buying, fiscal-deficit concerns, and geopolitical tensions, remains intact, according to FinanceMagnates.

Why UBP still believes in $6,000 gold

The $6,000 target is not based on a single catalyst. UBP sees a combination of stagflation risks, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and continued central bank demand as the foundations for a recovery and further move higher, according to Exchange Rates.

Central banks globally are expected to purchase approximately 950 metric tons of gold in 2026. Poland recently raised its gold holding target to 700 metric tons from 550 metric tons, a move that signals growing institutional appetite for the metal.

Global gold ETF holdings hit a record 4,171 tonnes in February 2026. Total gold demand in 2025 exceeded 5,000 metric tons for the first time, driven by a jump in ETF holdings, central bank accumulation, and bar and coin purchases, according to World Gold Council data cited by Investing.com.

JPMorgan believes gold could go as high as $6,300 by the end of the year.

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Where other major banks stand on gold

UBP is not the only institution with a bullish year-end gold target, but it is among the most aggressive. Institutional year-end forecasts now cluster between $5,400 and $6,300, according to FinanceMagnates.

JPMorgan raised its end-2026 gold forecast to $6,300. Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale both target $6,000, with Societe Generale warning its forecast may prove conservative. ANZ raised its Q2 2026 forecast to $5,800 per ounce, up from $5,400, according to Scottsdale Bullion.

Goldman Sachs sits at the lower end of the Wall Street consensus with a $5,400 year-end target. State Street assigns a 30% probability to a $5,500 to $6,250 bull case, according to FinanceMagnates.

Not everyone is fully bullish. UBS precious metals strategist Joni Teves has warned that investors may be watching the late stage of the gold bull run, according to FinanceMagnates. UBS itself holds a $5,600 year-end target.

Key gold price targets from major institutions:UBP (Swiss): $6,000 year-end 2026, reaffirmed April 13JPMorgan: $6,300 year-end 2026Deutsche Bank: $6,000 year-end 2026Societe Generale: $6,000 year-end 2026ANZ: $5,800 Q2 2026UBS: $5,600 year-end; upside scenario $7,200; downside $4,600Goldman Sachs: $5,400 year-end 2026Current gold price: approximately $4,733Gold all-time high: approximately $5,600, set January 29, 2026Why the pullback has not broken the bull case

Gold has fallen roughly 15% from its January peak. That is a significant correction. But UBP and several other major institutions are treating it as a consolidation, not a reversal.

Gold is up more than 25% since the start of 2026, extending a 64% gain from 2025. The current rally is the metal’s strongest since 1979, according to Investing.com. That kind of momentum does not typically disappear after a single correction.

The forces that drove gold higher have not gone away. Geopolitical risk remains elevated with the Iran conflict unresolved and a U.S. naval blockade now in effect. Real yields are still under pressure. Central banks continue to buy. For institutions like UBP, those conditions are enough to keep the $6,000 target on the table, even with gold sitting nearly $900 below it today.

Related: Analysts offer hot take on gold price surge

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