UBS revisits Boeing stock forecast after earnings

If you’ve followed Boeing over the past five years, you know the story. Grounded jets, manufacturing scandals, defense charges, and several more. The company also weathered a pandemic that gutted air travel demand, a strike that stalled production, and a stock that went essentially nowhere while the S&P 500 nearly doubled.

But if you take a moment to look at the 109-year-old aircraft company, something is changing. And it’s showing up in the numbers.

On April 22, 2026, Boeing reported Q1 results that beat expectations, with $22.2 billion in revenue and a $0.20 loss per share, far better than Wall Street’s forecast. Shares are also up 35.84% over the past year, outpacing the S&P 500’s 32.23% gain, for the same period, according to Yahoo Finance.

UBS watched all of this and didn’t flinch. The bank reiterated its buy rating and $285 price target on Boeing (BA). UBS pointed to a recovery narrative it says is gaining durability with each passing quarter.

“We’re building on our momentum with a strong start to the year and growing record-breaking backlog across our business,” said Boeing President and CEO Kelly Ortberg. “With a continued focus on safety and quality, we’re delivering high-quality commercial and defense products and services, while increasing production to uphold our customer commitments.”

Now, the question investors are sitting with is whether Boeing’s recovery is real and durable enough to justify buying the stock now. It’s not even about whether Boeing is recovering, because clearly, it is.

Why UBS is sticking with its Boeing buy rating

UBS’s conviction on Boeing (BA) isn’t rooted in a near-term earnings story. It’s rooted in a backlog and a free cash flow target that’s still four years away.

The bank’s buy rating rests on two pillars, according to its note. First, in what UBS describes as an “idiosyncratic narrative,” Boeing’s recovery is driven by company-specific execution improvements that are largely independent of macro conditions. Second, it has a target of $20 billion in free cash flow by 2030, which UBS believes the market is not yet pricing in at current levels, as Investing.com stated.

Related: Boeing stock price resets after earnings

Boeing’s total company backlog grew to a record $695 billion in the first quarter of 2026, including more than 6,100 commercial airplanes valued at $576 billion, Boeing’s earnings statement confirmed. Defense, Space, and Security backlog reached a record $86 billion, with 27% of orders coming from customers outside the United States. That’s nearly 10 years of work already contracted.

This runway of visibility, UBS argues, makes Boeing unusually attractive in an uncertain macro environment.

The bank’s note deployed a characteristically precise observation, which you may also approve. For every two steps forward Boeing takes, the step backward is getting smaller. That pattern, UBS says, is what steadily rebuilds institutional trust, and what will eventually allow investors to stop discounting the long-term upside and start pricing it in.

Boeing’s 737 program is currently producing 42 aircraft per month, with plans to ramp up to 47 per month by summer 2026.

AaronP/Bauer-Griffin/GC Images via Getty Images

Boeing’s performance highlights:Year to date: BA up 7.84% versus S&P 500 3.84% surgeOne year: BA up 35.84% versus S&P 500 32.23% gainThree years: BA gain of14.14% versus S&P 500 gain of +71.97%Five years: BA 1.77%  drop versus S&P 500 70.05% gain
Source: Yahoo Finance

The three and five-year numbers tell the story of how much ground Boeing still has to recover. And how much upside remains if the execution holds. According to Boeing’s April 22 earnings release, the results were impressive for a recovering company.

Boeing’s Q12026 results included:Revenue of $22.2 billion, primarily reflecting 143 commercial deliveriesGAAP loss per share of $0.11, core loss per share of $0.20Operating cash flow of negative $0.2 billionCommercial Airplanes revenue of $9.2 billion and an operating margin of negative 6.1%Defense, Space, and Security revenue of $7.6 billion and an operating margin of 3.1%Global Services’ operating margins of 18.1% following the divestiture of Digital Aviation Solutions
Source: Boeing First Quarter 2026 Results

On the commercial side, the 737 program continues production at 42 aircraft per month, with plans to reach 47 per month by the summer of 2026, according to Seeking Alpha.

Certification of the 737-7 and 737-10 variants is expected in 2026, with first deliveries anticipated in 2027, Boeing indicated. 

Related: Boeing lands another huge military deal

The 787 program stabilized production at eight per month and received FAA certification on the 787-9 and 787-10, for increased maximum takeoff weight. The 777X program advanced into the Type Inspection Authorization 4a phase of certification flight testing.

Boeing booked 140 net commercial orders in the quarter, including 30 787-10 airplanes for Delta Air Lines, 25 737-10 and 25 737-8 for Aviation Capital Group, and 20 737-8 for Air India.

UBS says the Iran war changes nothing for Boeing

As mentioned in my previous analysis on Boeing, before the earnings report, Boeing’s $695 billion backlog is acting as a buffer against macro uncertainty. UBS says even the Iran war hasn’t changed that. BA has seen no disruption from Middle East tensions or higher oil prices, despite their impact on airlines. 

Demand for aircraft remains strong, with customers willing to accelerate deliveries if others defer, making the backlog not just large but flexible. With delivery slots oversubscribed, Boeing now has pricing and negotiating power it lacked two years ago.

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This supports UBS’s macro-resilience thesis. A backlog covering nearly a decade of production gives Boeing unusual revenue visibility for an industrial firm. BA is targeting $1 billion to $3 billion in free cash flow for 2026, still in recovery mode, while a $20 billion target by 2030 remains the long-term goal, according to Seeking Alpha.

Analysts are broadly constructive. UBS’s $285 target sits within a range that reflects a growing institutional confidence, even as Boeing’s five-year return of -1.77% trails the S&P 500’s 70% gain.

Related: Boeing’s backlog boom puts cash flow to the test

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