Year of two halves, and rate cuts next year …

You can also listen to this podcast on iono.fm here.

Welcome to the latest episode of The Property Pod, South Africa’s leading property investor podcast, right here on Moneyweb.

We are adopting a slightly different take on this week’s podcast, with an economist as our guest – Gina Schoeman. She is from the international banking group Citi and is regarded as one of the country’s most savvy economists.

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Listen/read:
Global growth cools, delivering cold economic comfort for Africa
The sooner we hike, the less we have to hike
Godongwana says fuel levy cut might be extended
Treasury has space to extend fuel levy relief – Citi’s Gina Schoeman
Middle East war has ‘sapped’ confidence – SBG’s Goolam Ballim

Since this podcast is on property, we are taking a fresh look at interest rate expectations … It’s a very uncertain and volatile market with the Middle East situation and the Iran war affecting our markets in South Africa. We are pretty much exposed to what’s happening globally.

But we also ask Schoeman about the broader economic outlook for South Africa, especially since Citi had an economic briefing earlier this month, looking at different sides – not just from a South African economy perspective, but also a broader African perspective.

On the interest or repo rate front, Schoeman believes SA will now see at least two rate hikes this year – one at the next South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) monetary policy committee meeting in May. The sooner we hike, the better it may be, she says.

However, despite the uncertainty arising from the Middle East conflict, she adds that 2026 could turn out to be a year of two halves. The second half may be better than we think, especially if there is an end to the conflict.

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This could mean Sarb rate cuts being back on the table sometime in 2027 …

* You can listen to the full podcast above or download it from iono, Spotify or Apple Podcasts. 

For previous episodes of The Property Pod, click here. 

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