Goldman Sachs gives Chevron stock price new target after earnings

Goldman Sachs is taking a stronger view on Chevron after the energy giant’s first-quarter results gave analysts more confidence in the company’s cash flow outlook, production base, and shareholder return plans.

In a report given to TheStreet, Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta raised the firm’s 12-month price target on Chevron to $216 from $211 while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. The updated target implies 16% total return potential from current levels, based on Chevron’s share price of $192.64 at the time of the report.

The price target increase comes as Goldman points to several signs of operational strength across Chevron’s business, even as commodity markets remain volatile and geopolitical risks continue to shape global energy.

Goldman said Chevron’s first-quarter results were supported by resilient upstream fundamentals and strong operational execution. The firm highlighted key updates heading into the second quarter, including Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG running at full rates, TCO producing above roughly 1 million barrels per day, and U.S. refineries operating at record crude throughput.

Goldman sees strength in Chevron’s production base

Chevron’s production story remains one of the bigger drivers behind Goldman’s call. In the report, Goldman said first-quarter production increased by about 500,000 barrels per day year over year, helped by legacy Hess assets and continued organic growth.

Goldman also noted that Chevron’s U.S. output is now above roughly 2 million barrels per day, while management’s full-year production guidance remains unchanged. Chevron still expects production growth of about 7% to 10% in 2026, according to the report.

International projects are also playing a role in the outlook. Goldman said TCO in Kazakhstan returned to full service after February repairs, while the CPC pipeline is running at full capacity. In Australia, Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG assets are operating at full rates. In the Eastern Mediterranean, Tamar and Leviathan are also operating at full capacity, with offshore work now complete for the Leviathan third gathering line.

Chevron’s downstream business adds another lever

Goldman’s updated target also reflects higher downstream earnings expectations, a piece of the Chevron story that can become more important when refining margins move in the company’s favor.

In the report, Goldman said Chevron is positioned to capture higher margins across refined products following significant price dislocations. The firm pointed to high utilization and portfolio flexibility as factors that can help the company optimize product flows during volatile periods.

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Goldman said Chevron is especially focused on supplying Asian markets, where management expects refinery utilization above roughly 80%. Looking toward the second quarter, Goldman said management expects global equity crude throughput to more than double year over year to 40%, with regional throughput above 40% in Asia and above 50% at certain U.S. facilities.

That downstream setup helps explain why Goldman lifted its estimates after the first-quarter report. The firm now expects Chevron to earn $15.00 per share in 2026, $12.44 in 2027, and $13.10 in 2028, up from prior estimates of $14.17, $12.15, and $12.86, respectively.

Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta raised the firm’s 12-month price target on Chevron to $216 from $211 while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock.

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Chevron keeps cash returns in focus

Chevron’s capital return program remains central to Goldman’s bullish view. The company generated about $7.1 billion in cash flow from operations during the quarter, while adjusted free cash flow totaled about $4.1 billion, including roughly $1 billion from a TCO loan repayment.

Goldman said Chevron returned a significant amount of cash to shareholders in the quarter.

$7.1 billion in cash flow from operations$4.1 billion in adjusted free cash flow$3.5 billion returned through dividends$2.5 billion returned through share repurchases$18 billion to $19 billion in expected full-year capital spending$2.5 billion to $3 billion in expected Q2 share repurchases$3 billion to $4 billion in expected structural cost savings by year-end

Goldman said the company’s free cash flow outlook supports continued dividend growth, buybacks, and capital investment through the cycle. On the firm’s updated estimates, Chevron could return about $29 billion to shareholders in 2027 and about $30 billion in 2028, assuming Brent crude averages $75 per barrel.

Goldman still sees risks for Chevron

Goldman’s higher target does not remove the risks facing Chevron. The firm said it continues to monitor Chevron’s footprint in historically higher-risk areas, including Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and the Partitioned Zone.

The report said Chevron’s recent asset swap in Venezuela could support future growth, though management remains focused on debt recovery, and Goldman sees limited visibility into earnings from the region.

Goldman also flagged commodity prices, refining margins, and operational execution as key risks to its view. Still, the firm said Chevron’s disciplined capital allocation strategy, cost savings efforts, and balance sheet support an attractive shareholder return outlook.

For Goldman, Chevron’s latest quarter gave the firm enough confidence to raise its target while keeping its bullish rating in place.

Related: Chevron earnings carry a cash-flow warning

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