US retail sales rise for third month despite higher gas prices

US retail sales advanced for a third month in April, pointing to some signs of consumer resilience despite sharply higher gas prices.

The value of retail purchases increased 0.5% last month after a revised 1.6% gain in March, Commerce Department data showed Thursday. Because the figures aren’t adjusted for inflation, an increase could reflect higher prices rather than more sales volumes.

Metric
Actual
Estimate

Retail sales (MoM)
 +0.5%
+0.5%

Sales ex. autos, gas (MoM)
 +0.5%
+0.3%

‘Control group’ sales (MoM)
 +0.5%
+0.4%

Nine out of 13 categories posted increases. Sales at sporting goods stores, online merchants and electronics outlets rose in April. Motor-vehicle sales fell. Receipts at gas stations rose 2.8% as the Iran war pushed gas prices to the highest levels since 2022. Spending at grocery stores also rose firmly, likely reflecting a surge in food costs in the month.

Excluding gas stations, sales rose 0.3%, the least in three months.

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So-called control-group sales — which feed into the government’s calculation of goods spending for quarterly gross domestic product — increased a larger-than-expected 0.5%. The measure excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations.

The report suggests higher-than-usual tax refunds helped provide a financial cushion against mounting inflationary pressures. That said, inflation-adjusted wages are declining once again and Americans are saving less.

The risk for the economy is a broader pullback in household spending. While recent card data for April showed higher-income Americans were spending at a solid pace, those earning less started to tighten their belts, according to the Bank of America Institute.

Moreover, with one measure of consumer sentiment at the lowest on record, many economists expect spending growth to be sluggish should inflation persist. Corporate executives have already flagged some consumers have begun to pull back.

What companies are seeing

“The war in Iran amplified consumer concerns about the cost of living.” — Marc Bitzer, CEO of Whirlpool Corp. on a May 7 earnings call

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“We aren’t really seeing any large-scale shifts in consumer buying behaviour. And we are still seeing consumers under pressure, but that’s not a new dynamic.” — Russ Torres, president and chief operating officer of Kimberly-Clark Corp. on an April 28 earnings call

“The gas prices right now we’re seeing there is really more of the impact on the consumer disposable income. And as long as that continues, I think that will continue to be a driver of both consumer confidence and what our customer is able to afford,” Russell Weiner, CEO of Domino’s Pizza Inc. on April 27 earnings call

The retail sales report showed that spending at restaurants and bars, the only service-sector category in the retail report, rose 0.6%. On May 28, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will offer a more complete picture of consumer spending that includes services and is adjusted for inflation.

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