Joburg’s coalition puzzle: Three scenarios that could shape its future

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JEREMY MAGGS: So Johannesburg has voted, but the real political battle is only beginning, with no straightforward path to a governing majority at this point, parties now face a frantic round of coalition negotiations, competing demands and potentially uncomfortable compromises. I want to talk now to Sam Mkokeli, who’s lead partner at Mkokeli Advisory, and he has been analysing the coalition battle.

Sam, welcome to you. And obviously with the caveat that counting is continuing, but looking at what we know so far, how realistic or what do you think the most realistic coalition is that could eventually govern Johannesburg within the next two weeks or so?

SAM MKOKELI: I’ve got three scenarios, but the one is an outlier. The first one is what’s unlikely is that ActionSA, ANC (African National Congress), EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters) and the rest of the parties, the rats and mice, all come together to gang up on the DA (Democratic Alliance), and then they send Helen Zille packing for Cape Town. It’s an unlikely scenario and also, it will be a very difficult one to run.

The DA and the ANC have incentives to get together and form a government quickly. But that’s also complicated in terms of understanding and following the ANC’s complicated politics.

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There’s a national ANC, it might want to do an ANC-DA coalition, but then the provincial ANC tends to do things differently. They might want to block Helen Zille and also the city politicians in the ANC, they might be keen to block Helen Zille.

Then there’s the other scenario, will Helen Zille and Herman Mashaba smoke the peace pipe, and they decide to govern together. It probably would be a low-trust coalition, very difficult. Two very strong politicians, they might find it very hard to work together, but there are ways around it as well. And they might want to strike a deal for the city of Johannesburg, but also affect the other cities.

The DA and ActionSA have done well in the other two metros, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane, perhaps the DA and ActionSA could have a three-way deal where they sweep up all the cities in Gauteng and lock the ANC out of power in the subnational. That would be quite seismic, actually.

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JEREMY MAGGS: Sam, there is huge voter frustration, not only in Johannesburg but in other metros as well. Do you have a sense this time that we might be at some kind of line, where the parties are forced to act in the best interests of the voters, show some political maturity, or do you still think there’s the likelihood that big egos are going to reign?

SAM MKOKELI: Politicians don’t follow voters after an election. They follow them before an election, and they know they’ve got the mandate, and they have a mandate to be politicians, and they’re all ego-driven. They will do what they do as professional politicians, and they’ll look after their self-interest. That’s real politic, it works like that.

But the voters have made their point, and it’s been quite decisive. They sent the ANC packing everywhere, they’ve been the biggest loser in this election.

It’s quite a big warning and that the ANC is incapable of hearing anyway,  and they really said that they don’t want the ANC anywhere important. It’s also a big sign for the 2029 elections.

But because of how we do the elections, that we don’t have one three-way election in one day, national, provincial and local government, now we’ve got an election and we’ve got another one in two years. The parties have an incentive, those who can hear the message have an incentive to behave well and use this as a stepping stone for the 2029 election.

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ActionSA has the wind in their sails, so with the DA, and the ANC has got a big incentive to turn around, but I don’t think they are capable of turning around in such a short space of time. Just looking at how this message has been dripping over the past four electoral cycles, and they haven’t learned a single thing from that.

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JEREMY MAGGS: Sam, tell me, how important is it that these negotiations, particularly in Johannesburg, are going to be dictated, as I understand it, by national party leaders rather than the elected councillors themselves?

SAM MKOKELI: Yeah, that’s the nature of the beast. It’s easier in the DA, it’s a smaller party, a different type of party, a very professional type of party, compared to the ANC where everyone in the ANC have got a more democratic culture, everyone has a say. So that’s easy to implement for the DA. But the ANC has a history of saying in national government, we’re going to partner with the DA and others to form a government of national unity (GNU).

But in Gauteng, Panyaza Lesufi and other leaders in the provincial set-up went against Cyril Ramaphosa. You might find that that is still possible right now that provincially they might want to have their own way.

The ANC is a unity party that has got federal tendencies, so somebody can go against that. It’s going to be very interesting period, it has started now, but officially it starts once the IEC (Independent Electoral Commission) declares the results, likely on Sunday, and a 14-day calendar for a council to be formed. So it’s going to be very interesting.

Perhaps they might just find an agreement within the first three days because of the nature of the intensity and the options out there, you want to sign the deal as soon as possible and get council to vote for a speaker and then the mayor. Because if you dilly-dally, somebody else might just snatch your partner away from you.

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JEREMY MAGGS: Let me just widen the aperture slightly, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni also heading for difficult coalition negotiations. Sam, do you think ActionSA could emerge as the ultimate kingmaker across the entire province? And what price might it demand for its support?

SAM MKOKELI: They are the ultimate a kingmaker. But Mr Mashaba tends to run politics very differently. It works for him and it also doesn’t work for him. He really can be a hard-nosed person around campaigning and also hold very hard lines when it comes to negotiating. He can lock himself out of things because right here is the kingmaker, but the ANC has the lock…

Mr Mashaba has the key. So if he holds the key, the ANC can open that lock. Either way, they can work with him, they can also work with the DA. If he calculates and ponders over these things too long, he might just lose that. But he has a lot to gain.

I had a conversation with him yesterday about how he’s going to do things. He doesn’t mind sitting things out because it would also be amazing for him going into the 2029 elections, and he’ll be in a very strong position. But here’s the problem for him, he has foot soldiers who worked very hard, and they want power.

They want power now and they want the results of their toil today. So he might just end up with mutiny if he doesn’t. The interest is that he gets into power immediately.

JEREMY MAGGS: Sam Mkokeli, thank you very much indeed, lead partner at Mkokeli Advisory. I do appreciate your time.

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